Market concerns about escalation eased briefly after Trump suspended further military strikes against Iran. Bitcoin rebounded above $64,000 over the weekend, trading at around $64,150, but failed to hold above key resistance levels.
Geopolitical tensions ease in the short term
Reports indicate that Trump halted US military operations on Friday evening while maintaining communication channels with Iran. Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio also participated in these contacts. Trump stated that the US remains militarily prepared, but signs of increased negotiations have emerged.
Previously, tensions in the Middle East had been heightened by the Red Sea attack on a ship and attacks on military targets in multiple locations. Brent crude oil prices briefly rose above $100 per barrel. For the cryptocurrency market, the pause in the crackdown reduced the risk of short-term escalation, but did not eliminate geopolitical pressures.
ETF funds continue to flow out.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of over $465 million on Thursday and Friday. BlackRock's IBIT saw an outflow of $212 million on Friday alone.
The outflow of funds increased selling pressure on Bitcoin. The price had previously encountered resistance multiple times in the $65,000 to $67,000 range, indicating that institutional buying remained weak during this pullback.
Meanwhile, progress on the Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act in the U.S. Senate has slowed. Disagreements over crypto ethics rules among federal officials have diminished the likelihood of the bill passing before the summer recess.
Stablecoins and options signals diverge
CryptoQuant data shows that the volume of stablecoins flowing into exchanges has fallen to a multi-month low. This typically means less available funds for immediate purchases and a slowdown in retail trading activity.
However, Glassnode points out that short-term defensive sentiment in the Bitcoin options market is weakening. The put/call ratio of open options has fallen from 0.76 at the end of June to about 0.52, and the short-term skew has also declined, indicating a decrease in demand for near-term downside hedging.
Based on the reported price range, $63,800 to $64,000 remains the nearest support level for Bitcoin; resistance is concentrated between $65,000 and $67,000. The article also mentions that short-term holders' profit target is around $68,000, meaning that some recent buyers approaching break-even could trigger new selling pressure.
