Foreign media reports indicate that bets are heating up around the US crypto bill, the Clarity Act, but Alex Tapscott, CEO of CMCC Global Capital Markets, believes the market may be overestimating the bill's chances of passing. According to him, even if the bill ultimately fails to pass, it may not immediately trigger a significant drop in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.
The probability still remains uncertain.
Tapscott stated that the market currently rates the Clarity Act's chances of success at approximately 47% to 50%. However, he believes the bill may not garner sufficient bipartisan support in the Senate, thus the final outcome remains highly uncertain.
He emphasized that mainstream financial markets have not fully priced in the bill's passage. In other words, investors have not made large-scale bets on the bill's success, so the direct impact on the market if the bill fails may be limited.
Industry expansion has not stopped
The article argues that the development of the crypto industry has not stagnated due to prolonged regulatory uncertainty. Tapscott cites Solana as an example, noting that the blockchain has already been used by institutions, enterprises, financial companies, and startups for technical and business deployments.
He also mentioned that Ethereum and Hyperliquid are driving new on-chain applications and business models, rather than simply moving traditional assets onto the chain. According to this view, the drivers of industry growth are shifting from mere narratives to actual use, transaction activity, and revenue generation capabilities.
The passage of the bill may lead to an upward revaluation.
Tapscott also noted that the crypto market has historically been dominated by four-year cycles, but as platform usage expands, real adoption rates may become a more important pricing factor in the future. If platforms continue to generate more transaction fee revenue, and this revenue flows to stakers, the valuation of the corresponding assets could continue to rise.
In his view, once the CLARITY Act is passed, the most direct beneficiaries will likely be regulated crypto companies in the United States. Clearer rules are expected to reduce concerns about policy inconsistencies, prompting companies to invest more in their crypto businesses and opening up space for new products such as tokenized equity.
