According to CoinMeta, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for July will be released today at 20:30 (UTC +8). Wall Street institutions predict that the number of new jobs created will range from 18,000 to 83,000. A Dow Jones survey shows that economists on average expect 83,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. Bank of America expects around 80,000 new jobs, while Vanguard Group predicts 18,000. Since Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh abandoned forward guidance, economic data has become a decisive factor in pricing the Fed's future interest rate path. If the data indicates a strong labor market, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates no more than three times this year. As a core barometer of the labor market, non-farm payroll data directly determines the pace of the Fed's monetary policy adjustments. The current significant divergence in market expectations regarding employment growth reflects a high degree of uncertainty about the economic outlook, which exacerbates the risk of volatility in financial markets. If the data is strong, it will completely shatter the market's aggressive expectations of interest rate cuts and force the Fed to maintain a tightening stance. This data is not only an anchor for short-term asset pricing but also a key indicator of whether the U.S. economy is heading into a recession.