According to CoinMeta, traders are betting that there is a 50% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in September. Under the leadership of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, the Fed has reduced its forward guidance, and the market relies on hard data to determine the policy path. If the CPI data in July is modest, it could weaken the case for a hike; if it exceeds expectations, it could increase the likelihood of a hike in September. The pricing of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is tilting downward, driven by the more moderate CPI in July. Fluctuations in inflation data directly affect the sharp swings in the probability of a hike, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to the policy path. This data is not only a barometer of interest rate expectations but also a key variable driving the reconfiguration of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.