According to CoinMeta, as reported by early issuer in, U.S. economic data has weakened, and the interest rate options market has adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. The U.S. July non-farm payroll report showed a decrease of 23,000 jobs, and retail sales recorded the largest decline in over a year. Investors in the interest rate options market closed out their positions betting on interest rate hikes in September and December, shifting to trades anticipating interest rate cuts before mid-2027. SOFR Options market saw contracts betting on interest rates remaining unchanged in September, as well as call options expiring in March and June 2027. The interest rate swap market indicates that the Fed's September meeting implies about 9 basis points of interest rate hike space, with an expected cumulative tightening of about 40 basis points by June 2027. Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad forecasts suggest that the market believes there is a 74% to 75% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September.