web3: Foreign media: Bitcoin BIP110 may face three possible outcomes
Bitcoin Magazine
1h ago
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Foreign media commented that Bitcoin has entered a critical phase, and there could be three possible outcomes: stagnation, full activation, or chain split.
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外媒评论认为,比特币围绕 BIP110 的争论已从技术分歧走向实际执行阶段。按照文中描述,支持 BIP110 的节点将从约第 961,632 个区块开始,只接受带有升级信号的区块。由于 Bitcoin Core 这一主流客户端尚未采纳该提案,而近期矿工支持率仅约 1% 至 2%,这次尝试能否推进仍存在明显分歧。

支持率偏低,最可能结果是节点停滞

文章认为,若矿工信号维持在当前低位,绝大多数运行 Bitcoin Core 或其他未执行 BIP110 规则的钱包和节点,日常使用几乎不会受到影响,出块和交易确认仍会照常进行。

但对运行 Bitcoin Knots 或其他执行 BIP110 规则的节点来说,情况会完全不同。这类节点会拒绝未发出支持信号的区块,结果可能是长时间看不到新区块,转账确认显著变慢,甚至基本停滞。按这一判断,BIP110 若无法争取更多矿工支持,首先受影响的将是支持该规则的一小部分节点本身。

若矿工集体转向,BIP110才可能落地

文章列出的第二种情形是,大多数甚至几乎全部矿工在强制信号窗口开启后转而支持 BIP110。若出现这种情况,链上区块都会带有升级信号,节点之间在短期内仍可保持兼容,BIP110 规则也可能在数周后正式进入执行阶段。

不过,文章同时指出,区块信号本身并不等于真正执行新规则。矿工可以先发出支持信号,以避免其区块被部分节点拒绝,但未必立即切换到执行 BIP110 的软件。如果多数经济节点后续仍接受不符合 BIP110 的交易,链分裂风险并不会因为信号增加而完全消失。

少数矿工坚持,也可能触发分叉

第三种情形是,支持 BIP110 的矿工从当前低位升至一个有影响力的比例,并且这部分矿工同时拒绝未发出信号的区块。文章认为,这会直接推动一条少数派链形成。

在这种情况下,支持 BIP110 的链初期出块会明显变慢,可能每小时只有一到两个区块,随后再等待难度调整恢复。与此同时,未执行 BIP110 的原有链也会继续运行,只是短期出块速度同样会受到影响。若两条链都持续存在,结果将不再是一次普通升级,而是形成两种并行流通的加密资产。

  • 当前矿工支持率约为 1% 至 2%
  • 强制信号窗口起点约为区块 961,632
  • 文中称规则执行时间点可能落在 9 月初前后

文章认为,一旦永久分叉发生,市场将面临一个现实问题:哪一条链会被继续视为“比特币”。按文中判断,保留原有规则的一侧更可能继续被多数用户视为 BTC,而执行 BIP110 规则的一侧则可能被当作新的分叉币。

作者还提到,若少数派链后续吸引更多算力并在链长上反超,理论上可能影响部分节点的链选择。但用户也可以通过手动拒绝少数派链上的区块,阻止节点在未来切换过去,从而让分叉固定下来。

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