Foreign media reports that the momentum for the advancement of the U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act CLARITY within Congress is weakening. Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti stated that after recent discussions with lawmakers and congressional staff in Washington, he believes that this bill has clearly lost support.
Internal support within Congress is weakening.
Mariotti stated that several members of Congress or their staff directly informed him that the CLARITY bill “is no longer a possibility.” This statement has increased external doubts about the prospects of the bill.
CLARITY The bill was originally intended to establish clearer regulatory divisions and rules for the US cryptocurrency market, but there are still disagreements within Congress regarding the specific arrangements, which has led to a slowdown in progress.
Senate voting to take place on September 15
Although pessimistic sentiment is rising, the bill has not been officially terminated. The Senate still plans to hold a procedural vote on termination debate on September 15th, which will determine whether the bill can proceed further.
Meanwhile, the available time for the House of Representatives is shrinking. The two full weeks of meetings scheduled for September have been canceled, which means that members only have 14 working days left before the recess for the October elections.
The time window for the House of Representatives narrows
If the Senate advances the bill, the House of Representatives will still need to complete discussions, coordinate the text, and conduct a final vote, which significantly increases the time pressure. Senator Cynthia Lummis is also urging Congress to take action before the end of this legislative term.
While progress in Congress has stalled, U.S. regulatory agencies have not waited for legislation to be completed. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is advancing a separate framework of rules for cryptocurrencies, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is also formulating rules related to crypto assets and predictive markets.
Predict a decline in market probabilities
Confidence within the industry regarding the bill is also declining. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan described the bill as "a walking corpse," believing that it has not yet been officially terminated, but the process of advancing it will continue to be delayed.
Contracts related to the CLARITY bill show that the probability of this bill becoming law in 2026 is currently around 13% to 18%, which is a significant drop from over 80% earlier this year.
