After entering September, the U.S. labor market typically sees a rebound in hiring activities compared to the summer. According to economists from LinkedIn and Indeed, this phenomenon, known as the "September hiring season," is not merely a topic on social media; there indeed exists a relatively stable seasonal pattern behind it.
The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in August, the United States added 162,000 non-farm jobs, and the figures for June and July were revised upward by 55,000 jobs each. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. This provides some support for recruitment activities in September, but it does not mean that the job market has significantly strengthened.
Job postings usually pick up in the autumn.
Economists say that the peak in job recruitment usually occurs in spring and early summer, after which it declines. However, the United States, as well as some English-speaking countries and Nordic nations, tend to see a second wave of job growth in September and October.
According to LinkedIn, the number of job openings in the United States in August is usually 3% lower than in March, but rises to 14% higher than in March by September, and remains 11% higher in October. The Indeed job posting index also shows that there is often a surge in recruitment demand around Labor Day and in the weeks that follow.
The main reason behind this is that companies have begun to prepare for the fourth quarter and the holiday consumption season, which leads to an increase in labor demand in industries such as retail, transportation, and warehousing. However, Indeed also points out that the degree of recovery is not always significant; in some years, it only results in a slight increase.
The number of applicants has not increased accordingly.
Unlike job postings, job applications are generally more active from January to May each year, and then tend to decline after that. Even if the number of job positions increases in autumn, the number of applicants may not increase accordingly.
This means that job seekers who continue to submit their resumes in the second half of the year may face less competition than at the beginning of the year. LinkedIn believes that if the number of positions is limited, but there are fewer job seekers at the same time, those who meet the requirements may still have a better chance of getting hired.
However, the recruitment pace varies across different industries. Taking accounting positions as an example, companies usually increase their recruitment efforts at the end of summer to prepare for the year-end financial reports and tax filing season. Indeed mentioned that from July to August last year, there was a 21% increase in the number of accounting position vacancies.
The financial, accounting, and certain professional services industries still have longer recruitment cycles. Some companies may start recruiting in September and October in advance, but employees may not actually start working until the following summer. Therefore, an increase in job postings does not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in the number of new hires for that month.
The recruitment pace this year is still relatively slow.
Despite the persistence of seasonal patterns, the job hunting environment in September this year is not easy. Indeed believes that the current recruitment market in the United States is roughly comparable to that of a year ago, or even slightly weaker.
According to data cited in reports, there were approximately 7.3 million job vacancies in the United States in July, which is higher than the around 7.1 million from a year ago. However, the actual recruitment pace of companies is slow, and the time it takes to send job offers to candidates is also prolonging. In other words, while the positions are still available, companies are not hiring as quickly or at a rapid pace.
LinkedIn also mentioned that the prolonged inability to find a job is eroding the confidence of some job seekers, with the impact being particularly evident among the younger generation. Some people choose to pause their job hunting, while others opt to return to school for further education.
Overall, September is typically the period when the U.S. job market begins to recover from its summer lull. For job seekers, this is more of a sign of seasonal improvement than an indication that the employment environment has fully strengthened.
