On Tuesday, the trading price of Bitcoin was around $84,000, up 0.9% from 24 hours prior, but down 2% on a weekly basis, according to CoinGecko data. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within this range, while surrounding assets have moved in the opposite direction.
The pressure comes from beyond the realm of cryptocurrencies. U.S. Treasury yields have been hovering near multi-year highs, mainly driven by oil prices. According to Wall Street Journal, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 5.274% on Monday, the highest since June 2007; the yield on 30-year Treasuries climbed to 5.583%, the highest since 2002. Both yields fell slightly on Tuesday due to declining crude oil prices. As U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day cease-fire aimed at ending the war and re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices briefly returned above $100 per barrel on Monday, which also strengthened the U.S. dollar. Subsequently, Brent crude oil prices fell below $104 per barrel, dropping about 1.7% for the day, after having touched above $108 per barrel earlier in the week. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian officials continued indirect contacts through Qatar, and Saudi Arabia also resumed about half of its oil exports via the East-West Pipeline, which serves as an alternative route outside the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices dropped to a seven-week low.
Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda stated: "The rise in crude oil prices is suppressing unprofitable assets, which is why the upward momentum of Bitcoin has somewhat stagnated." He predicts that as long as energy risks persist, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to gain upward momentum. However, he is more optimistic about the chart trends, describing the current price behavior as consolidation within a short-term upward trend.
According to Farside Investors data, spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted capital inflows for eight consecutive trading days, and Rahman estimates the net inflow over this period to be around $3 billion. The inflow on Monday was relatively small: SoSoValue data shows that the net inflow was $31.07 million, of which BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of $54.84 million, Grayscale Mini Trust had a net inflow of $10.32 million, while GBTC had a net outflow of $23.19 million, and Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of $10.90 million. These funds currently hold assets worth $107.82 billion, which is equivalent to 6.42% of Bitcoin's market value.
Bitcoin Treasury Company Strategy continues to buy. The company disclosed that it purchased 1,665 bitcoins between September 21 and 27, spending approximately $142.7 million, which increased its holdings to 847,666 bitcoins, surpassing the 847,363 bitcoins it held in June and setting a new high.
This week's U.S. economic data will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's debates. The core PCE for August will be released on Wednesday, along with the third estimate for the second quarter GDP. The indicator showed a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3% in July, and the Federal Reserve raised its forecast for 2026 to 3.4% at this month's meeting. The employment report for September, released on Friday, is expected to show about 90,000 new non-farm jobs, lower than the 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%; however, Barclays' chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni believes that September's new job gains are closer to 50,000. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting from October 27th to 28th, just three weeks before its first interest rate hike since 2023. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the futures market prices a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at 70.3%, up from 55.4% a week ago and 17.7% a month ago. Traders at the forecasting market Myriad under Decrypt's parent company Dastan also price in a similar outcome, with that figure also rising over the past week.
