Consumers' optimism drops to its lowest level since 2014 due to increasing concerns about prices and employment
CNBC
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According to Conference Board, the consumer confidence index dropped to 81.9 in September, reaching its lowest level since 2014, with respondents showing a weakening outlook on inflation, employment prospects, and personal financial conditions; meanwhile, the number of job vacancies in the United States decreased slightly to 7.08 million in August.
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The US Conference Board ( Conference Board ) stated on Tuesday that consumer confidence in September dropped to its lowest level since 2014, due to the public, which is struggling with inflation, becoming more pessimistic about how the labor market and higher prices will affect their financial situation.

The consumer confidence index of this institution has dropped to 81.9, a decrease of 6.7 points from the previous value, and is also significantly lower than the 89 expected by the Dow Jones survey.

Respondents expressed concerns about inflation and employment prospects. For the first time in four years since this survey question was introduced, more respondents considered their personal financial situation to be "poor" than those who considered it to be "good".

Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson stated: "For the first time since September 2024, consumers' assessment of the current business situation has turned negative."

She added, "When consumers were filling in open-ended responses regarding factors affecting the economy, they were generally more pessimistic in September. The increased mentions of high costs for prices, goods, and services, especially for oil and natural gas, reflect the soaring fuel costs in September."

Other indicators also show a similar deterioration: the current situation index of the institution has dropped by 7.9 points to 109.3, and the expected index, which measures prospects for the next six months, has fallen by 5.9 points to 63.6.

In terms of employment, the gap between those who consider jobs to be “abundant” and those who find them “difficult to find” – a closely watched indicator of the health of the labor market – has further worsened, dropping by 2.5 percentage points to just 1.7%.

The aforementioned results occur against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations, with ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Iran war further driving up inflation expectations. This is also reflected in financial markets, as seen in the soaring yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage loan rates.

The average expected inflation rate among respondents is 6.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from August; the median expectation also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.1%.

The readings for Conference Board are consistent with other similar surveys. A survey by the University of Michigan on consumers shows that consumer confidence declined by 7% in September, reaching its second-lowest level on record.

In another set of economic data released on Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that job vacancies in August fell slightly to 7.08 million, a decrease of 256,000 from the previous month, mainly due to a significant reduction in positions related to professional and business services as well as healthcare. Wall Street had previously expected 7.2 million vacancies.

The number of new hires in that month increased slightly, while the number of resignations remained relatively unchanged, and the number of layoffs decreased slightly.

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