On October 2nd, the price of Bitcoin rose by about 3% and briefly exceeded $87,000. Weak employment data from the United States reinforced market expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes in October, while a wave of short-selling liquidations also provided momentum for this upward movement.

• After the U.S. non-farm payroll growth in September fell far short of expectations, Bitcoin rose by about 3% and briefly broke through $87,000.
• Weaker employment reports have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting.
• As Bitcoin broke through $85,000, the amount of short positions liquidated within 24 hours exceeded $120 million, forcing bearish traders to close their leveraged positions.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recently recorded a weekly net inflow of $2.39 billion, providing another source of demand during the rebound of Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin faces resistance around $87,500; if buying pressure helps it break through recent highs, $90,000 will be the next important psychological barrier.

According to CoinGecko data, as of press time, Bitcoin was trading at around $86,300, having briefly risen above $87,000 during the session, and has rebounded from a level below $84,000 seen earlier in the day. As Bitcoin returns to the range it tested during the September rally, trading volume has also increased.

In September, non-farm employment in the United States increased by only 29,000 people, far below the economists' expected 90,000 people, which drove this round of gains. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and the increase in non-farm employment in August was also revised down to 133,000 people, from an initial figure of 162,000 people.

Before the employment report was released, Bitcoin had already begun to rise, but weaker data led traders to further expect that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged later this month. At the same time, a price break above $85,000 also forced bearish positions to exit the market.

Weak employment data supports Bitcoin prices

Before the release of the latest employment data, market expectations for another interest rate hike in October had already declined.

crypto.news Previous reports indicated that as of October 1st, the probability of a rate hike on Polymarket in October had dropped to 23%, compared to around 70% a week earlier. The vice chair of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, stated that policymakers may need more time before making another adjustment to interest rates.

The Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate range by 25 basis points in September to 3.75% to 4%.

Weaker non-farm data in September provided policymakers with another reference point on the labor market before their meeting on October 27th to October 28th. In recent weeks, Bitcoin has been under pressure from higher borrowing costs, especially after the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose above 5%.

Earlier this week, such effects were already visible: when the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to around 5.20%, Bitcoin trading was around $83,500. Previously, Bitcoin had risen to around $87,400 before giving back most of that gain.

Short liquidation drives BTC closer to $87,000

Part of the reason for today's rally is that after Bitcoin broke through a batch of sell orders around $85,000, traders were forced to close their short positions.

Market reports, citing data from CoinGlass, indicate that as BTC approached $87,000, the amount of Bitcoin short positions liquidated within 24 hours exceeded $120 million. The number of open futures contracts increased by about $2.3 billion during this period, suggesting that while traders were opening new positions, existing short positions were also being closed out.

Breaking through $85,000 is particularly important for position allocation, as this area has previously acted as resistance during previous pullbacks.

Bitcoin fell to $83,000 on September 29, after having risen to around $87,400 earlier this month. CoinGlass At that time, data indicated that there was a relatively concentrated liquidation risk around $85,500.

When Bitcoin once again reached that region on October 2nd, traders who had bet on a price decline were forced to buy BTC in order to close their leveraged positions, and these additional buying orders further piled onto the existing buying pressure in the market.

Derivatives have played an important role in Bitcoin's recent trend. Analysis by Bull Score of CryptoQuant shows that during the rebound in September, the number of open futures contracts increased, while the apparent spot demand decreased by about 170,000 BTC within 30 days.

Bitcoin ETF demand still supports the market in the background

Despite the recent significant fluctuations of BTC, the institutional buying driven by US spot Bitcoin ETF remains another source of demand.

During the week from September 21 to September 25, these funds attracted $2.39 billion in capital, with net inflows recorded on all five trading days.

On Monday, there was a net inflow of $999 million, and on Tuesday it was $714.7 million. Subsequently, the daily inflows for the next three trading days slowed down to $346.9 million, $190.7 million, and $134.5 million respectively.

BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for approximately $1.16 billion of the total weekly inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC received $701.6 million.

Since the middle of the year, demand for funds has clearly rebounded. The US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of approximately $5.8 billion in 2026 as of July 13, but subsequent inflows pushed its total from the beginning of the year to date back into positive territory in late September.

Analyst Bitfinex warned on September 30 that to achieve another round of sustained upward movement, there is still a need for stronger spot demand, especially as leverage decreases and the inflow of ETF has also slowed down compared to the strongest period in September.

Bitcoin price faces another test around $87,500

Bitcoin has once again reached $87,000, returning to the range that previously prevented the previous round of gains.

Bitget Wallet Research Lead Lacie Zhang previously identified $87,500 as the main upward level to watch for in October. She gave a monthly range forecast of $78,000 to $95,000, depending on institutional demand, inflation, and interest rate conditions.

Zhang indicates that if Bitcoin breaks through $87,500, it could open the way to $95,000; however, for the upward trend to continue, institutional buyers will need to absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders and miners.

On the downside, Zhang considers $82,000 to be an important support level, with a consolidation range between approximately $82,000 and $82,500. If the price continues to fall below $80,000, her bullish seasonal outlook will be invalidated.

The next test for Bitcoin regarding U.S. macroeconomic data is scheduled for October 14th, when consumer inflation data for September will be released. This will provide another important economic indicator before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in October.