Interest rate hike expectations cool down, boosting Asian-Pacific stock markets; Nikkei returns to 70,000 points; Hong Kong stocks in optical communications sector strengthen; NASDAQ futures continue to rise; Crude oil prices first rise then fall
Wallstreetcn
1h ago
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U.S. employment data in September fell short of expectations, causing markets to lower their bets on a Fed interest rate hike in October. Asian and Pacific stock markets generally rose on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 index returning above 70,000 points during the session. In the Hong Kong market, sectors related to artificial intelligence and optical communications were strong; meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly, Brent crude oil rose before falling, and gold rebounded slightly.
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The cooling of the U.S. job market has reduced the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, leading to generally higher stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region on Monday, with Japanese tech stocks leading the gains. Oil prices, however, saw a surge in the early session before pulling back.

U.S. added fewer jobs in September than expected, and the pace of wage growth slowed down. As a result, the money market immediately reduced its expectation of a Fed interest rate hike in October to less than 25%. This data significantly changed the market's assessment of the interest rate trajectory, providing some respite for risk assets.

The Nikkei 225 index returned above 70,000 points during the session, with a gain of over 2.5% for the day. MSCI The Asia-Pacific index rose by 1% to 279.06 points. The Philippine stock index opened higher by 0.8%. The Taiwan stock index increased by 2% to 49,465.19 points.

FTSE China A50 index futures opened with a 0.22% increase, following a 0.14% rise in the previous trading day's night session. The Hang Seng Tech Index started lower, falling by more than 0.8% at one point before turning positive. The artificial intelligence and optical communications sectors led the gains.

The positive reaction in the Asian-Pacific stock markets echoed the strong momentum of the U.S. tech sector. The Nasdaq 100 index futures rose by 0.4%, following the benchmark index setting a new record high last Friday. Meanwhile, the bond market showed a slight strengthening, and the yield curve of U.S. Treasury bonds generally moved downward.

Asian and Pacific stock markets generally rose, with Japan leading the tech sector.

MSCI The Asia-Pacific index rose by 0.5%, with the Japanese Nikkei 225 index increasing by about 2%. Tech stocks performed particularly well. The South Korean and Chinese mainland markets were closed due to holidays and did not participate in this round of market activity.

Weaker employment data directly dampened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to further tighten policy, providing significant support for the high-valued tech sector. Nasdaq 100 futures rose, further bolstering investor sentiment in Asia-Pacific tech stocks.

AMP Ltd. Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy, Shane Oliver, wrote in the research report:

The employment data for September was "neither hot nor cold," in line with the "Goldilocks" scenario, which further reinforced the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will not be eager to raise interest rates again this month.

Wall Street Journal mentioned that in the first round of elections, Jair Bolsonaro "surprisingly led" over Lula, pushing the race into a second round. In the first round of Brazil's general elections, the right-wing senator Jair Bolsonaro won with 47.8% against 44.2% of the vote, far exceeding poll expectations. The two candidates will compete in a runoff on October 25th.

Affected by this, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in Japan on Brazilian exchanges soared by 7.6%, and futures contracts for the Brazilian real against the US dollar also strengthened accordingly.

Hengke is on the rise, with artificial intelligence and optical communications showing strength.

The trend in the Hong Kong market has been relatively more volatile, with stocks related to artificial intelligence and optical communications performing strongly.

The Hang Seng Index opened lower and fluctuated within a narrow range, with the Hang Seng Tech Index initially falling by more than 0.8% before turning upward.

Tech stocks such as NetEase, Meituan, Xiaomi Group, and JD.com fell by more than 1% in the early session. The FTSE China A50 index futures rose slightly by 0.22%.

In terms of individual stocks in the artificial intelligence sector, Shenyan Intelligence once rose by over 12%, and Zhipu rose by over 2%.

In terms of individual stocks in the optical communication sector, Jingshin Communications saw a surge of nearly 13%, Cambridge Technology rose by 5%, Higuang Xinzhen continued to strengthen with a gain of over 6%, and Junzhi Group increased by 4%.

The sentiment towards tech stocks is generally positive. According to Bloomberg, Kevin Gordon, the head of macro research and strategy at Credit Suisse Asset Management, stated that tech stocks related to artificial intelligence are supporting the overall trend of the market, despite many individual stocks having experienced significant corrections.

U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, and oil prices rose briefly in the morning session before pulling back.

During the Asia-Pacific session on Monday, the U.S. Treasury yield curve as a whole strengthened slightly, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling by 2 basis points to 5.25%, in line with the signals of increasing expectations for interest rate cuts conveyed by the employment data.

Despite the fading expectations of interest rate hikes, the medium-term pressure on the bond market has not completely dissipated. This week, the U.S. Treasury Department will hold auctions for 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, providing an opportunity for the market to assess investors' actual demand for long-term bonds. The Federal Reserve will also release the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday, and attention will be focused on policymakers' statements regarding inflation trends and prospects.

RBC BlueBay Chief Fixed Income Investment Officer Mark Dowding pointed out in the research report:

Over the past week, the global bond yield curve has become steeper overall, and the intense volatility in the fixed-income market has finally drawn widespread attention from the financial markets. Nevertheless, concerns about central banks' consecutive interest rate hikes in recent days have eased to some extent.

Brent crude oil fell by 0.9% to around $101.34 per barrel, after previously rising above $103.

Wall Street Journal mentioned that the situation in the Middle East has received a great deal of attention this week. Saudi Arabia is planning to launch large-scale military operations against the Houthi forces in the coming days, with the aim of taking control of the coastal areas that allow the Houthi forces to control the strategic maritime passage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports indicate that the operation will be led by the Yemeni government's ground forces, with support from Saudi aerial forces, focusing on targeting the strategic strongholds of Houthi militants in coastal areas. However, the brief boost in geopolitical events did not last, and oil prices soon reversed their gains.

Gold rebounded slightly by 0.46% to $4,158 per ounce, following a significant weekly decline since June.

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