Bangkok – Policymakers are shifting from discussing whether artificial intelligence will impact employment to issuing stern warnings and suggesting measures to mitigate its effects.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on Monday that the impact of artificial intelligence on the global labor market is like a "slow-motion tsunami," with young graduates being the first to be affected.

At a group discussion on Monday, Gueorguieva said, "The first people who need to worry are those young people who have just entered the labor market. Usually, they start with these routine, repetitive jobs and then gradually get promoted. But if these positions disappear, I don't think any young person will consider working as a barista in a coffee shop as a... future career."

During the same panel discussion, Singaporean President Halimah Yacob Singh, who also serves as co-chair of the World Bank's Employment Council, called on governments around the world to transform the support measures implemented during "crisis times" into permanent tools to help young people find employment.

He said that the measures taken by the government during the COVID-19 pandemic, and in some cases during the global financial crisis, "must now be regarded not as crisis measures, but as part of a structural policy portfolio."

This means working in collaboration with the private sector and encouraging companies to hire recent graduates, as "the first step in employment, which is your first job after graduation, is now in decline," said Shang Daman.

These remarks indicate that policymakers are shifting from debating whether artificial intelligence will disrupt employment to deciding how to mitigate its consequences; at the same time, the rapid aging of the population, especially in Asia, has already threatened a reduction in the labor force.

World Bank President Ajay Banga stated in the same panel discussion that over the next 15 years, 1.2 billion young people will turn 18, and the private sector, which creates 75% to 85% of jobs in any country, will have to employ most of them.

He said that the role of the government is to make all this possible by building infrastructure, formulating policies, and "de-risking" private capital, or reducing the risks that hinder investors from making large-scale investments. "It is private capital that creates jobs," he said.

IMF It is estimated that approximately 40% of jobs worldwide will ultimately be "enhanced, downgraded, or eliminated." Gueorguieva said that the exposure rate in developed economies is around 60%, and in low-income countries it is about 23%, but poorer countries are not necessarily safer just because "artificial intelligence is still further away from them."

Shang Daman said that the pressure is most evident in the tech industry, and added that in the United States, "for the first time in a century, the demand for graduates has declined," and the wage premium associated with a college degree is also shrinking. If no action is taken, a graduating class will lose more than a year's worth of skills: "You will lose confidence in the future," he said.

"Love it, hate it, or be afraid of it."

Artificial intelligence has also been a major driving force behind growth this year. Gueorguieva stated that investments and trade related to artificial intelligence have boosted the output of a few economies, helping the global economy to maintain expansion at nearly 3% even under the impact of energy supply shocks.

"Love it, hate it, or be afraid of it. Artificial intelligence is here, and we have already seen the first wave of its impact," said Georgieva. She estimates that the adoption of artificial intelligence could boost growth in developed Asia by 0.5 to 1 percentage points and in emerging Asia by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points. In the best-case scenario, this "will be sufficient to offset the losses caused by population aging," she said.

Shang Daman warned that growth alone may not necessarily lead to employment. He said that in countries such as China, India, and developing nations in Southeast Asia, "growth is quite good, but job creation is weak," and if we are too passive towards artificial intelligence, "it will further exacerbate this disparity."

However, he stated that the replacement of jobs by artificial intelligence will occur "gradually task by task," "which gives us time" – provided that workers are able to learn on the job and universities shift to more applied training.