It is reported that on March 23, U.S. President Donald Trump renounced his threat to strike Iranian power plants, a move that triggered intense fluctuations in crude oil, stock markets, and other financial markets.

Traders have long been accustomed to price fluctuations driven by news of the Middle East situation, but this time, some traders hit the timing perfectly. About 15 minutes before Trump posted on the social media platform Truth to announce a policy shift, there were contract bets worth billions of dollars in the market: bearish on crude oil and bullish on the S&P 500 index. This incident sparked widespread speculation, with doubts that someone had obtained an unfair information advantage.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the United States is responsible for investigating this incident. This federal derivatives regulatory agency has seen a significant increase in its scope of regulation and level of attention with the rise of cryptocurrencies and predictive markets. A team of senior forensic analysts within the commission is organizing the day's market profit and loss transaction data following standard procedures.

According to informed sources (who request anonymity due to the involvement of internal government deliberations), analysts from market regulatory authorities submitted case transfer materials to law enforcement agencies based on observed transaction timing and information about the parties involved in the transactions. It is up to the law enforcement agencies to decide whether to initiate a full investigation into potential insider trading. The informed sources also stated that representatives from both departments held meetings to discuss the best ways of collaboration.

According to informed sources, what followed was highly unusual: Mel Guernavdner, a senior advisor to Michael Selig, the chairman of CFTC who was appointed by Trump, requested that a supervisor from the market regulation team withdraw the case referral materials. The team was at a loss at the time. On a practical level, they were not even sure how to carry out this request, as such an action had almost never occurred before. This incident also broke with precedent in another way; in the past, it was always senior professionals who were responsible for collecting vast amounts of data and drafting preliminary reports, after which law enforcement lawyers would decide whether to pursue the case. However, this time, an advisor to the politically appointed official Selig intervened, intending to revoke the case referral materials and personally oversee the data collection process. Guernavdner is a veteran of Wall Street and had served in CFTC during Trump's first term; he returned to the institution a few weeks ago to take on the role of head of international affairs and senior market advisor to the chairman. It is unclear what authority he held in this evidence collection process.