Alphabet to Release Financial Reports After Merger with Microsoft; Options Traders View It This Way
CNBC
1h ago
Ai Focus
Before the release of financial reports for Alphabet and Microsoft, expectations in the options market for the two stocks were clearly divided. Data shows that market makers anticipate that the stock price of Alphabet will fluctuate by about 5.8% after the financial report, which is higher than Microsoft's expected fluctuation of less than 5%; at the same time, on Tuesday, call options accounted for the majority of trades for Alphabet, and there were large purchases of call options with a January expiration date and an exercise price of $360.
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Reader's note: CNBC " Options Action " will be live-streamed this afternoon at 2:30 PM Eastern Time by Mike Khouw and Brent Kochuba to explain how to trade before the earnings reports of Alphabet and Microsoft. You can come back later to watch it.

This small rebound in the market will face a crucial test after the market closes, as technology giants Alphabet and Microsoft will release their financial reports at that time. However, from a technical perspective and based on options market expectations, the situations of these two stocks are quite different.

Microsoft's stock price is less than 1% below the closing record set earlier this month, while Alphabet is hovering near the technical bear market area, down 20% from its May closing high. Cboe LiveVol data shows that market makers expect Alphabet's stock price to fluctuate by 5.8% after the financial report is released, whereas Microsoft's expected fluctuation is less than 5%.

For Microsoft, this implied volatility is lower than the average post-financial report volatility of the past two years, which was 6%. Meanwhile, Alphabet had an average post-financial report volatility of 2.7% during the same period. The current expected volatility is more than twice that level. Considering that the stock fell by 7% after the last quarter's financial report and rose by 10% after the previous quarter's financial report, such pricing might also be justified.

As the NASDAQ 100 index corrects, the put/call option ratios for both of these stocks are gradually moving towards the put side. However, Barchart data shows that, based on the baseline of the past year, there are still more call options than put options for both stocks, with this ratio consistently remaining below 1. Microsoft's current ratio is 0.59, which is higher than the low of 0.43 in June.

The ratio of Alphabet is 0.72, which is the highest since August, but the options capital flow on Tuesday was even more positive. Cboe data shows that out of the 435,000 options traded, 312,000 were call options; among these, nearly 102,000 call option transactions were likely initiated by buyers, while only 54,000 were initiated by sellers, with the rest being traded at around the mid-price.

SpotGamma Data shows that one of the most concentrated bullish buy orders, Alphabet, appeared on January-expiry call options with an exercise price of $360. The data indicates that it appears one trader purchased approximately $18.5 million worth of these call options in eight lots, with each lot consisting of 2,850 contracts.

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