Large oil companies are expected to see a significant increase in performance, but investors may still need to be cautious.
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In the coming days, the energy sector will see a flurry of financial reports and industry conferences, with companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, and ConocoPhillips releasing their financial results and guidance. The author believes that despite the potential for significant profit growth, investors should remain vigilant due to Europe's energy challenges, the risks associated with the Hormuz Strait, and the technical correction risks following the sharp rise in refining stocks.
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You will see everything.

This is not referring to that supposedly excellent new documentary about Elizabeth Holmes, the infamous founder of Theranos. What we're talking about here is the next few days and next week: the earnings reporting season, major conferences, and more content regarding Europe's energy dilemmas, which will be the main focus.

I will further discuss the energy financial reports in the section below labeled `Actionable Insider`.

For me, next week will involve multiple flights across different time zones. First up is one of the most important global energy conferences: the ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi. It’s a gathering of industry giants in the energy sector. I will be interacting with some of the most influential energy executives from around the world. You will see some highlights from this conference on CNBC, and then I will write about it here next week. I will also have private meetings with some of the most important decision-makers in the energy field, and engage in in-depth discussions with national and corporate leaders on topics such as oil, natural gas, commodities, and the Strait of Hormuz – all of this taking place at a time when there are concerns that Iran or its energy infrastructure may face another round of strikes. The situation remains tense.

Later this week, I will provide a more in-depth report on Europe's slowly evolving energy crisis. The Iran war and the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz have added another layer of complexity to an already precarious situation, but it's important to clarify that this is not the sole reason for Europe's energy difficulties. Russia's terrible invasion of Ukraine, which has been ongoing for four years now, has added fuel to the flames ignited by misguided policy decisions made years ago. I have been covering Europe's energy story for the past five years, from the UK, Germany, Belgium to the Netherlands, and next week I will be in Italy to focus on Europe's current situation. Hint: it's not a good outlook. Natural gas storage levels are below recent averages, and the prices of imported liquefied natural gas are near record highs.

Of course, there is also a risk of changes to the itinerary, just like the trip to Riyadh that was scheduled a few weeks ago. That trip was ultimately cancelled because Houthi militants launched despicable and deadly attacks on civilian targets in Riyadh and other Saudi cities.

Speaking of the Middle East, a few days ago I posted a blurry photo on X sent to me by a friend from Dubai. While swimming in the early morning, my friend spotted a U.S. Navy vessel on patrol in the distance of the Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf). The photo is blurry because he could only take it from a distance at a higher zoom level, but nonetheless, I think this photo speaks for itself. The reason oil can flow through the Strait of Hormuz is partly due to the strong U.S. Navy ensuring that vessels can pass through safely. That vessel and the brave men and women on board play a crucial role in this. However, at the same time, there is a risk of renewed tensions in the Iran-War situation, and there might be new U.S. strikes against Iranian targets. If that happens, oil prices are likely to soar. We live in a world that changes by the day, even by the hour.

Stay calm, continue moving forward... and keep the warships on standby at all times.

Brian

Actionable Insider

You will see everything... including performance and guidelines.

The next few days are crucial for energy investors. ExxonMobil ( XOM ), Chevron ( CVX ), Marathon Oil ( MPC ), and ConocoPhillips ( COP ) will all release their financial reports one after another.

Let me put it straight: these numbers will be extremely large, on the order of the size of the state of Texas.

The market's expectations for ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are all above mentioned. All three companies are expected to see their earnings per share more than double compared to last year. As for those companies with a higher proportion of refining operations, that's another matter.

Marathon Petroleum's estimated earnings per share are 25.37 dollars. That's right. Just three months ago, earnings per share were 17.73 dollars, and the estimate at that time was “only” 14.27 dollars. Think about it: just a year ago, this company based in Ohio had earnings per share of 4.51 dollars. Rising oil prices, and more importantly, the huge “cracking spread” for refined products, have driven its sales to expected increase by 13 billion dollars in just one year.

For these four companies, guidance may be even more important than profits themselves. The way the companies describe their future and capital expenditures is what deserves the most attention. Investors will closely monitor any changes in their expenditure plans.

These figures may also attract close attention from politicians. As oil prices rise, they are likely to use these huge profits to criticize the entire industry. An industry insider told me that political attacks are "already commonplace" within the industry, but there is a hope that the outside world will pay more attention to the industry's volatile nature, and that the money these companies are earning now will help them weather tough times, and at some point in the future—not if, but when—oil prices fall again, it will provide a buffer.

Regardless of your views on large oil companies, get ready for some popcorn, because the coming week will be extremely important for all energy investors – in many ways – and I hope you’ll see it all happen.

For investors, BTIG chart analyst Jonathan Krinsky believes that the energy sector should be viewed with caution. As for refiners, he pointed out that the S&P Refining Index rose by nearly 160% in 2026, which was the best performance in at least thirty years and far exceeded previous years.

Krinsky writes: 'At the very least, we should expect consolidation, but it's more likely that there will be a significant pullback.'

Krinsky is not optimistic about the chart trends of Valero and Marathon Oil. Regarding the latter, this analyst stated that the stock "has not yet completely broken below its upward trend, but it feels like it's about to happen soon."

Let's take a look.

This week, we interviewed the U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. The interview took place at a nuclear power plant in a rural area of Illinois. His office is providing billions of dollars in loan guarantees to help the United States build more nuclear power capacity. We discussed this with the secretary, as well as issues related to oil, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the importance of U.S. liquefied natural gas in maintaining European operations at present.

THE GRID

ShellDue to the soaring refining profit margins reaching record highs, quarterly profits have almost doubled year-on-year.

SinopecThird-quarter profits grew by 57% due to rising oil prices and improved refining margins (Reuters)

The impact of Trump's methane policy reversal on crude oil prices may be limited, EPA indicates

This German energy giant is a neglected AI bargain ( WSJ )

For more energy-related content, including interviews and videos with CNBC and Power Insider, please continue to follow us.

Read the previous issue of “Power Insider” here.

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