Have you heard of the “15-Minute Market”? It’s a new type of prediction market that allows users to bet on whether the price of a certain asset, such as Bitcoin, will rise or fall within the next 15 minutes. These short-term bets have become surprisingly popular in the crypto industry, with trading volume on Polymarket reaching $11 billion.
Today, the platform is expanding its 15-minute market analysis to other asset classes, starting with gold and silver prices.
On Thursday, Chainlink, the data partner of Polymarket, announced that it will act as a so-called “oracle” to determine the outcomes of 15-minute bets on gold and silver. Chainlink also stated that in the future, it will provide data for similar short-term contracts related to foreign exchange and stocks.
Chainlink stated in a statement: "The 15-Minute Gold and Silver Markets are now live on Polymarket. As the platform expands its products from the crypto sector to the world's most actively traded assets, including stocks, commodities, and foreign exchange, these markets have also been launched accordingly."
It is still unclear how attractive the new 15-minute gold and silver contracts will be to ordinary investors, as such contracts are also available for trading on Kalshi, the main competitor of Polymarket. However, the popularity of the encrypted version contracts indicates that there is a demand for such products among the core hardcore speculators.
A recent report on this phenomenon by Bloomberg stated: “These markets are essentially like flipping a coin; traders describe them as being highly addictive. They end very quickly, and users fall into a cycle: starting to time, looking at charts, making a choice, winning or losing, and then starting over again.”
In fact, Bitcoin's 15-minute contracts have become so popular that Polymarket has even added a 5-minute version. Users of this platform can also currently place bets on three other major cryptocurrencies – XRP, Solana, and Ethereum.
Polymarket and Chainlink have not provided a specific date for the launch of the 15-minute stock and foreign exchange contracts. The spokesperson described the timeline as "imminent."
Like any type of prediction market, companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi rely on third-party data providers to confirm the outcome of bets. Chainlink has long played this “oracle” role in the field of smart contracts and is now also expanding to provide precious metals data.
The ultra-short terms of these contracts may raise questions: whether criminals might attempt to use them to trade on insider information. In the past, Kalshi and Polymarket have responded to this by stating that they have a zero-tolerance policy towards such illegal contracts and will publicly deal with customers who violate these rules.
