In August, President Donald Trump claimed that 97% of the Republican candidates he supported won their respective primaries.
This indeed reflects that Trump has the ability to influence elections, especially in the Republican primary elections, where he has successfully "shot down" politicians he did not like, such as Texas Senator John Cornyn and Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie.
However, despite Trump not avoiding expressing his opinions on foreign leaders, his influence over the elections of other countries does not seem to be that strong.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election on Sunday, defeating Jair Bolsonaro, who holds views close to those of Trump. Bolsonaro’s father, also named Jair, was once a ally of Trump.
Last weekend, a student-led movement in Serbia defeated the ruling party led by Aleksandar Vučić. Vučić is a populist leader who has established ties with Trump and his circle. Vučić has served as President of Serbia since 2017 and was Prime Minister from 2014 to 2017.
In his speech acknowledging defeat, Vučić stated that the loss was due to "the legalization of a revolution that was initiated by the people and directly supported by several European countries as well as the deep state in the United States that opposes Trump."
Earlier this year, US Vice President JD Pence visited Hungary for two days and publicly supported then-Prime Minister Viktor Orban. However, Orban is also a staunch ally of Trump and has received Trump's endorsement, but he lost that election and was removed from power after 16 years in office.
In October, Trump also endorsed the re-election of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Although the results of the election on October 27th have not yet been finalized, according to The Associated Press, Netanyahu's Likud party seems to have lost the majority of seats in parliament.
However, experts say that Trump's influence on any global election is not stable.
"Elections are always, first and foremost, a domestic affair; regional or global considerations come far second," said Cass Mudde, a professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, to CNBC.
In addition, Stijn Van Kessel, a professor of comparative politics at Queen Mary University of London, stated that it is also unclear whether Trump has truly had a significant influence on far-right activists in other places.
"Far-right political parties and politicians enjoy celebrating each other's victories, as it allows them to portray themselves as part of a successful global movement," he said, adding that these relationships can deteriorate rapidly when national interests conflict and foreign partners become unpopular in the eyes of their own voters.
Van Kessel mentioned that Trump's relationship with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni began to strain earlier this year, due to Italy's refusal to allow American planes to use a NATO airbase to participate in the war against Iran.
Subsequently, Trump claimed that Meloni "begged" to take a photo with him at the G7 summit, a claim that was denied by Meloni's side.
Right-wing forces
Nevertheless, right-wing movements remain strong in many parts of the world. According to polls compiled by "Politico," in France, Marine Le Pen is currently the front-runner to succeed President Emmanuel Macron. However, historically, she tends to lead among a large number of candidates before her support moves towards more moderate contenders.
In Germany, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 20.8% of the votes in the country's federal elections in February 2025, becoming the largest opposition party in Germany. Trump's ally Javier Milei leads Argentina, while Colombia's new president, Abrazado de la Espriera, was elected under a far-right platform.
However, Mudd pointed out that as Trump becomes increasingly unpopular in his own country, most far-right leaders will keep their distance from him. Due to the Iran war and soaring energy prices that drive up living costs, Trump's poll numbers in the United States remain near historic lows.
"When people are willing to give anyone a chance due to economic difficulties, but once those attempts fail, they turn to something else," says David Buck, a professor of government at American University in Washington. So far, Trump "has weakened the ability of his allies to maintain support."
