In surfing slang, a wave that lasts for a long time is called “runner”. One question that investors are concerned about is whether the “blue wave” that swept across the country on Tuesday falls into this category, and whether it will lead the Democrats to victory in 2028.

From a statistical perspective, the answer is that it should not have a significant impact.

CNBC analyzed elections since 1938 and examined the largest mid-term election "waves" during which the ruling party in the White House lost seats, to determine whether they could serve as any indication for the presidential elections two years later.

Tuesday's elections represented the largest loss of seats for the White House's ruling party in the House of Representatives since 2018, but historically speaking, it still barely made it into the top ten. CNBC's analysis ranks it at 10th place, based on the ongoing counting of votes, with the opposition party expected to gain a net of 41 seats in the House of Representatives. The biggest defeat occurred in 1938, when the Democratic Party lost 72 seats, due to factors including another economic recession, President Roosevelt's opposition to court expansion of powers, and his struggles with the conservative faction within his own party. Two years later, in 1940, Roosevelt was successfully re-elected.

In a more modern era, in 2010, during the second year of Barack Obama's first presidential term, the Republican Party swept to power in the House of Representatives, with the Democratic Party losing 64 seats, although they still retained control of the Senate. Two years later, Obama was re-elected. In the first four of these "wave" elections, which all took place before the president's final term, the ruling party went on to win re-election thereafter.

However, in the following five "waves" of elections, the ruling party lost each time. This includes the Republican Party losing seats in 1958 during the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower, after which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon in 1960; and in 2018, after the Republicans lost seats, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in 2020.

CNBC The partner of the Democratic poll, Hart Associates, stated that the reason why the momentum of the mid-term elections may not continue into the presidential elections is due to the importance of personal qualities in the presidential election. Jay Campbell

"A lot of things will happen in two years. Although presidential elections are certainly influenced by the overall political environment, they also depend heavily on the candidates nominated by each party," said Campbell. "If the quality of candidates is important in congressional elections, then it is 1000 times more important in presidential elections."

There is still a long time until 2028, and no matter how fierce this wave may be, statistically speaking, it could just as easily subside as it could send the Democrats back to the White House.