The 100-day simple moving average of the whale ratio for Binance rose to 0.513 on November 6, reaching the highest level since September 2017.
On October 31st, the whale ratio on the exchange briefly approached 1.0, during which time BTC fell from around $77,500 to $75,800.
The Binance hacking incident on October 29th may have affected large-value transfers, making this set of data more difficult to interpret.
The whale ratio rises when BTC weakens.
On October 31st, the proportion of large traders, also known as "whales," on the underlying exchanges nearly reached 1.0. This means that almost all of the capital flow in those exchanges on that day came from transactions conducted by large holders.
Subsequently, the 100-day average increased from 0.481 on October 31 to 0.513 on November 6. Meanwhile, BTC performed weakly, declining by 11.3% over the past month, but still rose by 17% over the past three months.
Binance Hacker incidents complicate the landscape of whale activities
There is an obvious complicating factor here. Binance suffered a hot wallet hacker attack on October 29th, and it is alleged that the amount stolen was approximately $6.2 to $6.4 billion.
This event may have affected large-value transfers during the same period. Therefore, it is still too early to interpret the increase in the whale ratio as a deliberate attempt to sell off assets. The existing data does not provide enough information to determine what these large-value transactions specifically represent.
JOLTS and non-farm data bring more market uncertainty
According to the data from JOLTS released on November 3, there were 7.52 million job vacancies in the United States in September. The non-farm payroll report on November 6 is also scheduled to be released during this period.
The US Dollar Index is at 101.56, virtually unchanged from a month ago. These macroeconomic indicators can provide context, but they cannot directly measure the whale activity of Binance. Any correlation remains speculative.
Before reaching a conclusion, Binance more background information is needed regarding the whale ratio.
For now, the Binance whale ratio indicates an increase in activity among large holders, while the price of BTC is weakening. However, this sequence still needs further verification, and due to the short observation period, it is not possible to determine whether whales are selling, reconfiguring their holdings, or simply transferring funds.
