Key points:

• XRP traded around $1.09 on Monday, down more than 10% from last week, with sellers continuing to dominate the broader market.
• US spot XRP ETF recorded a net outflow of $529,510 last week, ending two consecutive weeks of net inflows from institutions.
• In the presence of ongoing bearish technical indicators, XRP is at risk of testing the psychological support level of $1.

XRP continued to face pressure on Monday, with trading prices at around $1.097. Last week, its value fell by more than 10%.

With weakening institutional demand, deteriorating derivatives positions, and a unfavorable macroeconomic environment undermining attempts at recovery, this cryptocurrency remains firmly in a bearish territory.

ETF Capital outflows indicate a cooling down in institutional demand

Last week, institutions' interest in XRP weakened, reversing the positive trend seen in the previous two weeks.

According to SoSoValue data, the US spot XRP ETF recorded a net outflow of $529,510 last week, ending two consecutive weeks of net inflows.

For XRP, it is particularly vulnerable to a return to negative weekly cash flow, as this cryptocurrency already faces significant technical weaknesses.

In addition to the withdrawal of funds by ETF, derivatives market data also shows that traders are increasingly betting on further declines.

According to CoinGlass data, the long-short ratio of XRP dropped to 0.89 on Monday, approaching the lowest level in over a month.

A ratio lower than 1 indicates that in the market being analyzed, there are more short positions than long positions, suggesting that traders tend to be more bearish about prices.

The additional data for CryptoQuant further reinforces this bearish outlook. The market summary from this analysis platform shows that there have been large whale orders in both the spot and futures markets for XRP, and at the same time, the seller-dominated position continues to prevail.

This combination indicates that larger market participants are still actively trading, while the selling pressure continues to exceed the buying demand.

CryptoQuant also pointed out that the spot market is heating up, indicating that trading activity has intensified during the ongoing correction period.

Macroeconomic developments are also presenting additional challenges to XRP, as investors are re-evaluating the prospects of U.S. monetary policy.

Last week's stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data reinforced the expectation that the Federal Reserve may maintain restrictive interest rates for an extended period or raise rates again.

According to CME FedWatch data, traders are currently betting that the probability of a rate hike in December is about 78.7%, which is higher than the 72.8% before the release of the employment report.

XRP Price Outlook: Shorts Aiming for the $1 Psychological Support Level

As the trading price of XRP is far below the main moving averages, its technical outlook remains bearish.

As of Monday's writing, XRP was trading around $1.097, and the previous sharp decline made it difficult for buyers to regain control.

The cryptocurrency is still below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are concentrated between $1.302 and $1.360.

This forms an important resistance zone, which means that any meaningful rebound could encounter significant selling pressure.

The momentum indicator also indicates continued weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart ( RSI ) is close to 26, putting XRP in a clearly oversold area.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bar chart still shows negative values, further reinforcing the current bearish momentum.

As the XRP transaction approaches its recent low, sellers may attempt once again to push prices towards the psychological support level of $1.

If it clearly breaks below this level, it will constitute a significant technical setback and may lead to further selling pressure. However, a new support level still needs to be established.

Despite the current bearish sentiment prevailing, if buyers take advantage of oversold signals, XRP could still experience a brief rebound.

The first important resistance level is at $1.160; bulls must regain this level in order to establish a preliminary rebound.

If we can continue to hold this level, it may create room for a further rise to $1.300, at which point stronger selling interest could emerge.

Above this level, XRP also faces additional resistance at $1.302, which is the 50-day EMA, and $1.307, which is the 100-day EMA.

On the 200th day, EMA is at $1.360, which represents another major hurdle that buyers must overcome before the broader technical outlook begins to improve.