October interest rate trading heats up, Fed governor Waller inclined to support a rate hike in December
PR Newswire
43m ago
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According to Market Updates, on the day of the US CPI announcement in October, US stocks declined and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller stated that even if inflation improves as expected in October, he still tends to support a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the December FOMC meeting; if the core CPI remains at around 0.3% or even higher, a 50-basis-point hike may need to be considered. Meanwhile, exchanges and platforms such as CME, ICE, Tradeweb, Nasdaq, and BGC all reported increased trading activity in interest rate products in October or the third quarter.
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New York, November 10, 2026 / PRNewswire / -- Market Updates News reports stated that on the day the U.S. government released its October consumer price data, the U.S. stock market declined on Tuesday, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose. As of 12:44 p.m. Eastern Time, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.94% to 7,478.79 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.61% to 24,847.02 points; the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was at 5.01%, higher than 4.86% at the close on Monday.

Reports indicate that since late October, several exchange operators and trading platforms have reported that trading of interest rate products has been more active in October and during the third quarter. This week, market companies with the latest developments include: CME Group Inc (. NASDAQ : CME ), Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (. NYSE : ICE ), Tradeweb Markets Inc (. Nasdaq : TW ), Nasdaq, Inc (. Nasdaq : NDAQ ), as well as BGC Group, Inc (. Nasdaq : BGC ).

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ) reported at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time that, after seasonal adjustment, the Consumer Price Index ( CPI-U ) for urban consumers rose by 0.4% in October, following a 0.6% increase in September. The core index, which excludes food and energy costs, also rose by 0.3% in October, the same as in September and August.

BLS indicates that due to an interruption in funding, the organization did not collect survey data for October 2025. As a result, for indices that lack data for October 2025, it is not possible to publish the 12-month year-on-year changes for October 2026.

Before the release of the CPI data, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Powell delivered a speech at the Bank of England Observers Conference held in London. According to the transcript of the speech released by the Federal Reserve, Powell stated that even if inflation improves in October as he expects, he would still favor raising the policy rate by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December. The Federal Reserve calendar indicates that this meeting will be held from December 8th to 9th.

He also added that if the data for CPI in October is similar to that of the previous two months, and if the core CPI inflation rate is around 0.3% or even higher, then more substantial policy actions may be necessary. Walker said, "In such a case, I think it would be appropriate to consider raising the policy interest rate by 50 basis points at the December meeting."

The footnote in the speech states that these views represent solely those of Waller himself and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of his colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or FOMC.

CME Group Inc. ( NASDAQ : CME )

On November 3, CME Group reported that its average daily trading volume (ADV) reached 30 million contracts in October, setting a new record for the month and representing a 15% increase from October 2025. Among these, interest rate products (ADV) accounted for 14.8 million contracts, showing a 28% growth; US Treasury bond futures and options (ADV) saw a 48% increase to 9.2 million contracts; specifically, 10-year US Treasury bond futures (ADV) grew by 58% to 2.7 million contracts.

The company also reported that the average daily notional trading volume of US repurchases on the BrokerTec platform reached a record high of $419.5 billion. In its third-quarter earnings released on October 21, CME Group stated that the number of contracts ADV rose to 29.4 million, setting a record for the third quarter.

CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy stated in the performance announcement on October 21st: 'As uncertainties increased in the third quarter, customers turned to CME Group on an unprecedented scale in order to manage risks and seize opportunities.'

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE : ICE)

On November 4, Intercontinental Exchange reported that in October, the total ADV increased by 14% year-on-year, and the number of open contracts (OI) increased by 10%. Total interest rate products (ADV) grew by 40%, and OI increased by 21%; the total stock index (ADV) grew by 28%; and New York Stock Exchange stock options (ADV) grew by 19%.

On October 29th, the company reported net revenue of $2.8 billion for the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 15%; net transaction revenue was $1.4 billion, compared to $1.136 billion in the third quarter of 2025.

ICE Chairman and CEO Jeff Sprecher stated in the performance announcement on October 29th: 'Customers come to ICE to manage risks, connect with each other, obtain our data, and run key aspects of their businesses on our platform. They wish to trade, hedge, and access data during market fluctuations, and we are building a network to meet their needs in these scenarios.'

Tradeweb Markets Inc. ( Nasdaq : TW )

On November 5th, Tradeweb reported that the total trading volume in October was 78.9 trillion US dollars, while ADV was 3.6 trillion US dollars, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3%. US government bonds ADV grew by 32.6% to 304.2 billion US dollars; the total trading volume of interest rate derivatives ADV increased by 48.9% to 1.7 trillion US dollars.

The company stated that swap and swap option risk trading activities over one year or longer were stronger than in the same period last year. The driving factors included expected changes in global central bank policies, ongoing inflationary pressures related to energy, and uncertainties surrounding the economic impact of persistent geopolitical tensions.

Tradeweb CEO Billy Hult stated in the company's third-quarter results released on October 29: "Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields, changes in central bank policies, and geopolitical uncertainties, we continue to help our clients access liquidity and manage risks, while investing in opportunities that drive long-term growth."

Nasdaq, Inc. (Nasdaq : NDAQ)

Nasdaq announced its monthly trading volume for October 2026 on its investor relations website on November 4th. In its third-quarter earnings report released on October 22nd, the company stated that its net revenue was $1.5 billion, an increase of 13%; the net revenue from its market services business was $309 million, a growth of 2%.

Nasdaq indicates that the net revenue from market services business benefited from the increase in trading volume in the US options and European equity markets, as well as the strong performance of the US spot equity business.

The company stated that the NASDAQ stock market will still launch a trading schedule of 23 hours a day, 5 days a week as planned on December 6, 2026.

Nasdaq Chairman and CEO Adena Friedman stated in the performance announcement on October 22: 'The market is evolving towards a future driven by artificial intelligence that is always online, and this trend is increasingly integrating across asset classes and regions.'

BGC Group, Inc. (Nasdaq : BGC)

BGC Group reported third-quarter revenue of $832.6 million on November 5th, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, setting a record for the third quarter according to BGC's independent metrics. FMX UST's average daily trading volume increased by 40% year-on-year to $83 billion, also setting a record for the third quarter; FMX UST's market share in the third quarter was 42%, up from 37% a year ago.

FMX Futures Exchange also recorded a record quarter, with ADV exceeding 80,000 contracts. The company stated that trading volume continued to accelerate throughout the quarter, reaching an average of 112,000 contracts per day in September. The driving factors were increased customer adoption, as well as the launch of a complete U.S. Treasury bond futures curve in August.

Co-CEO John Abularrage stated in the performance announcement on November 5th: 'In August, FMX launched a complete curve of U.S. Treasury bond futures, which drove trading volumes to record highs in September.'

BLS has scheduled the release of CPI for November 2026 to take place on December 10th (Thursday) at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, which is the day after the meetings from December 8th to 9th conclude.

Contact Information:

market-updates.com
Media contact email: [ email protected ]

This article is an independent news commentary. Market Updates is wholly owned and operated by Market Equities Limited (“MEL”), which is registered in Ireland. MEL has not received any remuneration from any of the companies mentioned in this article. MEL and its owners, operators, directors, and related parties currently do not hold shares in the companies mentioned in this article, but retain the right to buy and sell these shares at any time without prior notice. Data on the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is from third-party market data services, as of 12:44 p.m. Eastern Time on November 10, 2026; closing data for the previous trading day also comes from the same source. Consumer price data is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report for October 2026; the content of Waller’s speech is from the transcript published by the Federal Reserve Board; the dates of the FOMC meetings are from the calendar published by the Federal Reserve. The information is drawn from company press releases and documents, government and industry data, public reports, and third-party data considered reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Securities investment carries risks, including the possibility of losing part or all of the invested principal. This article is governed by Irish law.

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