On Wednesday, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 2.3%, posting its best single-week performance since May; the S&P 500 index rose by 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.5%. After the mid-term elections in the United States, all major U.S. stock indices turned higher.
Ranked by market capitalization, as of the close of trading, Apple rose 2.04%, NVIDIA rose 2.87%, Microsoft fell 2.26%, Google-A rose 2.11%, Amazon fell 1.74%, TSMC rose 4.25%, SpaceX fell 2.33%, Broadcom rose 3.99%, Meta fell 1.97%, Tesla rose 2.91%, Eli Lilly rose 0.35%, Berkshire Hathaway-A rose 0.71%, and SK Hynix rose 9.71%.
Microsoft's continued decline still seems to be related to the launch of office products by Anthropic. Travel booking platforms Expedia and Booking saw increases in prices after United Airlines announced restrictions on AI agency bookings.
The NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.8% on Wednesday. By the end of trading, Alibaba fell 1.17%, Pinduoduo fell 0.49%, JD.com fell 1.62%, NetEase fell 4.61%, Baidu rose 0.06%, Ctrip fell 1.07%, Li Auto fell 2.8%, Bilibili fell 2.04%, and NIO fell 1.22%.
This rebound effectively alleviated the concerns in the market regarding the cooling of interest in the AI investment theme. The Matt Maley of Miller Tabak indicates that the strong recovery of tech stocks has dispelled doubts about whether Anthropic IPO can be successfully completed. If IPO is hindered, it will trigger questions from the outside world about whether the “AI bubble” will burst.
At the same time, data from Goldman Sachs' trading desk shows that hedge funds dominated the large-scale buying on that day, with the basket index related to AI experiencing a one-day increase of 5%, regaining levels before the election.
However, behind the warming of risk sentiment is the continuous accumulation of macroeconomic pressures. Inflation data has raised market expectations for interest rate hikes, with the US dollar index climbing to a level not seen since May 2025, and the implied yield on 10-year US Treasury futures once again breaking through 5%. Gold fell below $4,000 for the first time in four trading days.
Bloomberg macro strategist Frank Monkam pointed out that this round of rebound appears relatively fragile in a macro environment where cross-asset volatility remains high. Both implied and realized volatilities have not fallen back to previous lows, and the risk of cross-asset volatility transmission still cannot be ignored.
Triple AI catalyst breaks the haze of inflation
All three major U.S. stock market indices closed higher on Wednesday. The S&P 500 index successfully returned above its 100-day moving average.
The Nasdaq 100 index returned above its 200-day moving average, and the core driving force behind this rebound came from three concentrated releases of industry-positive news related to AI.
CoreWeave announced quarterly results that exceeded expectations and raised its outlook, causing its stock price to soar 25% in a single day, becoming a major driver of the Nasdaq index.
Meanwhile, Wall Street Journal mentioned that Anthropic IPO was in high demand, with subscription requests exceeding supply by several times; OpenAI's quarterly revenue also surpassed $10 billion for the first time.
The Matt Maley of Miller Tabak indicates that the rebound in tech stocks has alleviated market concerns regarding whether Anthropic IPO can proceed smoothly. He pointed out that if there is a delay in IPO, it will trigger doubts from the outside world about whether the “AI bubble” has begun to burst.
Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball commented that the lead in tech stocks on Wednesday indicates that AI anxiety is subsiding, and the market is now concerned about missing out on the year-end rally.
It is worth noting that this trading day coincided with Veterans Day in the United States, resulting in the closure of the U.S. Treasury bond spot market. Overall liquidity decreased by about 20% compared to the previous two weeks. Traders at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the low-liquidity environment amplified the short-squeeze effect, and the active participation of retail investors also contributed to the upward trend; in fact, just three stocks accounted for 32% of the total market trading volume.
New cloud service stocks led the gains, and chip stocks fully regained their lost ground.
This round of rebound shows clear structural characteristics: the direct beneficiaries of AI infrastructure (i.e., the "payees") outperformed the super-large-scale cloud computing giants (i.e., the "payers") significantly.
The new cloud service sector, represented by CoreWeave, saw a single-day increase of over 12%, and since its selection, it has accumulated a rise of more than 6%.
Goldman Sachs' broad AI basket of stocks rose 5% in a single day, returning to pre-election levels. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its largest one-day increase since the end of July, completely erasing last week's decline and approaching the 200-day moving average.
In contrast, the overall performance of the ultra-large-scale cloud computing companies was mediocre, remaining virtually unchanged on that day, and they are seen as sources of capital. The performance of the Tech 7 Index still lagged behind the S&P 500 Index by 493 points.
Divergences also emerged within the "Big Seven": NVIDIA rose by over 2.87%, Tesla increased by about 3%; while Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft each fell by about 2%.
Multiple parties are optimistic about the main storyline of AI, but disagreements still exist.
Institutions generally hold an optimistic view, but there are differing opinions regarding the sustainability of the market trend.
The Mark Hackett of Nationwide represents a typical case of rapid market narrative shifts over the past week. He believes that although investors are concerned about the uncertainties in the prospects of AI and inflationary pressures, a strong macroeconomic backdrop, historic earnings growth, seasonal favorable conditions, as well as a sufficient reset of expectations and valuations, constitute important supports for the market. "If skepticism subsides, bulls will gain a clear advantage."
Brock Weimer believes that AI's investment strategy remains intact, but as infrastructure construction matures, the capital expenditure and profit growth rates of major participants are likely to slow down in the coming year.
He stated that his company continues to be optimistic about large-cap stocks in the United States, believing that such assets offer quite attractive AI exposures at levels below the 10-year average forward price-earnings ratio. At the same time, they are also positive about mid-cap stocks that can benefit from a strong economy.
There is a clear divergence of opinion in the market regarding CoreWeave itself.
Many parties believe that its financing model, supported by customer contracts, is self-consistent: each contract is financed separately, and the debt is repaid in full within the contract period. By then, GPU will belong to CoreWeave. As the installation scale expands, free cash flow is expected to turn positive by 2030 (according to Goldman Sachs' forecast).
The bears point out that there is a clear discrepancy between the management's quoted pricing of $20 to $25 million per megawatt and the $9 to $13 million reflected in the financial reports. There will be a financing gap of about $33 billion next year, and by 2028, approximately 55 gigawatts of new supply will enter the market, which is about 20 times the current scale of CoreWeave. At that time, the rents for the old GPU facilities will come under pressure, and the $47 billion in debt must be repaid in full before the chips depreciate.
Macroeconomic pressures remain, the US dollar is strong, and gold is under pressure.
Against the backdrop of the U.S. Veterans Day holiday causing the Treasury bond spot market to close, bond market futures fell slightly, with the implied yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds futures once again rising above 5%. Federal Funds futures indicate that the market has fully priced in two 25-basis-point interest rate hikes in 2027, and expectations for earlier rate hikes rose moderately on the same day.
The US dollar strengthened in response, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising by 0.4%. The euro fell by 0.7% to $1.1088, and the Japanese yen declined by 0.7% to 159.87 per dollar. The US Dollar Index reached its highest level since May 2025 and recorded the largest increase in two days since June.
Gold prices came under pressure and fell, with spot gold dropping 1.2% to $3,984.37 per ounce, once again breaking below the $4,000 mark.
Bitcoin strengthened along with tech stocks, rebounding by 1.1% to $74,581, regaining ground after falling to a three-month low earlier.
Oil prices rose slightly due to mixed signals regarding the Iranian situation; the Islamic Revolutionary Guards of Iran claimed that two oil tankers had hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude oil prices increased by 0.4% to $86.41 per barrel.
Other news
United Airlines restricts unauthorized booking by AI agents
United Airlines announced on Wednesday that it will restrict unauthorized third-party AI agents or assistants from accessing its digital platforms, and this restriction will also apply to indirect access through travel agencies and aggregators. The company stated that providing account credentials to AI assistants may lead to the leakage of sensitive information, unintended purchases, account changes, or misuse of miles. Automated operations may also trigger compliance issues with aviation regulations.
【NBC Global Micro-drama Bonus: Users can watch for up to 30 minutes at a time】
NBC Global announces that its streaming platform Peacock is testing a new mobile experience, integrating vertical short videos, micro-dramas, games, and live streaming content with its popular films and TV shows IP. The related updates will continue until the beginning of 2027. The company revealed that among its 48 million subscribed users Peacock, about 40% frequently use the mobile app; users can watch micro-dramas for up to 30 minutes at a time. The micro-drama content covers themes such as romance and fantasy, with each episode typically lasting 1 to 2 minutes, and is already included in the subscription service without the need for additional payment.
Google is said to be internally testing the Gemini and Hydrogen models, which focus on speed and efficiency.
According to media reports, Google is internally testing a AI model in the Gemini 4 series, codenamed “Hydrogen”, with a focus on improving performance and efficiency. According to internal sources, employees are already able to use this model through Google’s internal development platform Jetski. One engineer described it as “powerful, fast, and efficient”. Employees involved in the testing stated that the Hydrogen is positioned similarly to the previous Flash series, meaning it can handle tasks at a lower cost and faster speed compared to models like Argon.
Ultra-small computers begin to be delivered with H15 servers equipped with AMD sixth-generation EPYC processors.
UltraMicro Computer announces that the H15 server product line, equipped with the sixth-generation EPYC 9006 series processors of AMD, has begun to be shipped, targeting cloud computing, high-performance computing, and AI intelligent workload applications. The company states that the new generation of products features a maximum 33% increase in the number of cores, with PCIe bandwidth doubling from previous versions, and single-slot memory bandwidth reaching 1.6TB/s.
[Musk: Cybertruck production will be extended until the end of summer 2027]
On Wednesday local time, Musk stated that in order to fulfill more Cybertruck backlogged orders, Tesla will extend the production of this model until the end of summer 2027. Previously, he announced plans to gradually cease the Cybertruck production at the factory in Texas by mid-2027 to make room for the expansion of Cybercab autonomous taxi production, and mentioned that deposits for some orders that could not be delivered would be refunded.
【Oklo Experimental Stack Approved to Enter Research and Testing Phase】
Advanced Nuclear Energy Corporation Oklo announced that the U.S. Department of Energy has lifted the last operational restrictions on the Groves-1 isotope test reactor in Texas, allowing the facility to enter the research, testing, and personnel training phase. The reactor reached criticality for the first time in August of this year, and the subsequent operational experience will be used to support isotope production projects as well as the development of the AURORA fast reactor, including equipment reliability testing, operator training, and design verification.
Ultra-microcomputer delays submission of quarterly report due to financing accounting treatment and debt clause issues
The sports camera manufacturer GoPro, which is in trouble, disclosed on Wednesday that it will not be able to submit its third-quarter 10-Q report on time due to the need for more time to complete the accounting processing and valuation of some financing arrangements, and that significant deficiencies in the internal control of related financial reporting have not yet been rectified. The company is seeking exemptions from certain debt terms from its lenders. The company initially estimates revenue for the third quarter to be around $96 million, which is lower than the $163 million in the same period last year. As a result of this, GoPro shares fell by 18.34% on Wednesday.
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