CoinMeta data: Binance Research reports that BTC has rebounded from a low of around $57,800 on July 1 to around $84,880, representing a gain of 46.9%. However, this rebound is not sufficient to confirm the bottom of the cycle. The report shows that historically, when BTC retracts by only 30%–38% from its previous high, it has seen a rebound of over 40% in 4 out of 5 cases, only to fall below that previous low again afterward. At present, when the current signal is triggered, BTC is still 35.6% lower than its historical high, indicating that it is within this “shallow retracement” range. Although the maximum retracement in this round of BTC is only 54.2%, it is about 1.94 standard deviations after adjusting for volatility, which is similar to the previous three bear markets. This suggests that this round is more of a “reduction in volatility” rather than a significant weakening of risk.