CBO: The US needs 5-6% actual GDP growth to stabilize debt
2026-10-09 08:20:58
According to CoinMeta, Director Phillip Swagel stated that the United States needs 5-6% real GDP growth and 7-8% nominal growth to stabilize its debt-to-GDP ratio, assuming that the cost of borrowing government bonds is around 4-5%. Currently, federal debt accounts for about 100% of GDP, with a structural deficit of 6%. Swagel warns that the current fiscal trajectory is not sustainable. He also cautioned that rising interest rates could create a dangerous feedback loop, increasing deficits, debt, and borrowing costs. Swagel believes that strong AI driven by productivity could become a driving force for growth, but growth alone cannot solve the deficit problem.
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