Shiba Inu rebounded by nearly 4% this Monday, but market sentiment has not significantly strengthened. On-chain data shows that some large-scale coin holders continued to reduce their positions after the rebound, and the long-short structure in the derivatives market also favors the bears, putting pressure on this round of recovery.
Large-scale address sold 40 billion SHIB
The holding distribution data for Santiment shows that since August 22, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million SHIB tokens, as well as those holding between 10 million and 100 million SHIB tokens, have sold a total of approximately 40 billion tokens.
This round of selling occurred after the price rebounded, reflecting that some large traders prefer to realize their profits during the rally rather than continue to chase higher prices. If such addresses continue to reduce their positions in batches, the number of tradable shares in the market will increase, and the difficulty for SHIB to maintain its upward momentum will also rise accordingly.
In contrast, addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million SHIB increased their holdings by approximately 990 million during the same period. However, this increase in holdings is significantly lower than the selling volume of large accounts, indicating that the new buying pressure is not yet sufficient to fully absorb the selling pressure from above.
Derivatives market sentiment remains cautious
CoinGlass Data shows that on SHIB Wednesday, the short-to-long position ratio was 0.93, which is below 1, indicating that there were more short positions than long positions. This data generally reflects that derivatives traders are still quite cautious about short-term trends.
The data from CryptoQuant also shows that the activity in both the SHIB spot and futures markets has increased. Following a recent price rebound, there have been large-scale whale orders in the futures market. However, other indicators have not yet shown a consistent direction, so the overall signal remains neutral to cautious.
- Short-to-long position ratio is 0.93
- The 50-day moving average support level is at $0.00000489.
- The 200-day moving average resistance is at $0.00000569.
The price is still above the 50-day moving average.
This round of nearly 4% rebound began after the SHIB backtest stabilized above the 50-day moving average index. The current moving average is around $0.00000489 and represents the most important support level for short-term trading. The appearance of buying interest after the price fell to this level indicates that there is still some demand at these lower levels.
If SHIB can continue to hold this support level, and at the same time buying interest strengthens, there is a chance for the price to further rise towards the 0.00000569 USD area where the 200-day moving average is located. If this level is broken through, the short-term rebound potential will be even greater.
However, the momentum indicators do not provide completely consistent signals. The daily RSI indicator rose to 54, crossing above the neutral line of 50, indicating that the bullish momentum has improved compared to earlier periods; but on Sunday, the MACD indicator showed a death cross, and the red bar chart expanded, suggesting that the downward pressure has not yet completely subsided.
Against the backdrop of whales continuously selling and derivative positions being net short, the next move for SHIB still depends on whether the buying at lower levels can withstand the additional selling pressure. If the 50-day moving average is lost, prices may weaken again; if it continues to hold firm, the market will test higher resistance levels.
