Foreign media reports that Solana has temporarily stabilized after falling back to around $100, with a cumulative increase of nearly 37% in the past month. However, this commentary article believes that whether this level can be maintained still depends on the trend of Bitcoin, changes in U.S. liquidity, and interest rate expectations.
Still below the high point after a rebound in recent months
The data cited in the text, CoinGecko, indicates that SOL has remained on the rise for most time periods. Even after a decline from $109 recently, it has still stayed above $100. The article also mentions that SOL fell below $10 after a collapse on FTX in 2022, but since then it has gradually recovered and once reached a high of $293.31.
According to the text, the current price of SOL is still about 65.6% lower than its historical high, indicating that although the asset has rebounded significantly, there is still a considerable gap from its previous peak.
Bitcoin and liquidity drive a rebound
The article suggests that this round of upward movement for SOL is related to Bitcoin returning above the $80,000 level. After Bitcoin strengthened, the overall risk appetite in the market rebounded, and SOL subsequently followed suit with an increase.
The article also mentions two driving factors: one is Trump's statement at a crypto event in the White House, stating that the United States plans to purchase large amounts of Bitcoin and other crypto assets; the other is the increased liquidity brought about by the U.S. Treasury's bond repurchase operations. The article suggests that this liquidity may have flowed into the crypto market.
The risk of losing $100 remains.
However, the judgment in this article is rather cautious. Its core viewpoint is that after the current rebound, the market may still experience corrections. In the short term, SOL is likely to remain volatile, but the risk of falling below $100 has not disappeared.
- The hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole Conference may strengthen expectations of interest rate hikes within the year.
- The liquidity brought about by the repurchase of U.S. Treasury bonds may be gradually withdrawn in the future.
The article argues that if interest rates continue to remain high, or if market liquidity declines, SOL and other crypto assets may face pressure. According to the reasoning in this commentary, once the price falls below $100, it could further drop to the $70 range.
