Bitcoin rose to nearly a four-month high this week, only to give back some of those gains later on. Market participants believe that this rebound is related to funds avoiding fluctuations in the bond market and once again viewing Bitcoin as a tool for value storage. However, discussions surrounding the "four-year cycle" have heated up again, and some institutions warn that further declines cannot be ruled out within the year.
Once broke through the consolidation range
Since the beginning of June, Bitcoin has mostly fluctuated within the range of $60,000 to $70,000, a trend that disappointed investors who were hoping for a continuation of the upward movement. It wasn't until the end of last month that the price began to break through this previous range.
On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly rose to $82,262, hitting a four-month high, before the increase narrowed. On Friday afternoon, the price fell back to around $79,800, a decrease of about 2% for the day, but it was still at a relatively high level since May.
Enhanced with Gold Linkage
Bitwise The head of European research, Andr, stated in the latest client report that recent price increases indicate that investors' perception of Bitcoin is changing. Rather than viewing it as a high-risk tech asset, the market tends to regard it more as a tool for value storage.
The backdrop for this judgment is the market fluctuations caused by the rising yields on U.S. long-term government bonds. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently disclosed that the Treasury Department plans to increase the scale of long-term government bond repurchases. Previously, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to a level near its highest in nearly two decades at the end of last month, and the Iran war also contributed to higher inflation expectations.
According to Dragosch, against this backdrop, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has approached its highest level in six years, indicating that the recent trends of these two assets are becoming more consistent.
The four-year cycle remains a point of disagreement.
At the same time, some traders believe that this round of upward movement may not last too long. The market has once again turned its attention to the "four-year cycle" theory of Bitcoin, which suggests that bear market lows and bull market highs tend to occur in cycles of four years.
Fidelity mentioned in the fourth-quarter crypto market outlook that if this pattern continues, then the next bear market low point could appear around November 2026, which is about four years from the previous bear market low point in November 2022.
This theoretical part is related to Bitcoin's halving mechanism. Halvings reduce the block rewards for miners, and historically, these cycles have often been used by the market as a reference for price fluctuations.
Galaxy Research Supervisor Alex Thorn wrote in the June report that, based on historical analogies, the possible low point for this round of withdrawals could fall between $40,000 and $46,000, and it could occur anywhere from now until the fourth quarter of 2026. However, he also emphasized that this is not a price forecast.
Fidelity Digital Assets, the Vice President of Research, stated that a four-year time frame is not precise, so it does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will continue to decline later this year. According to him, a more effective approach in history has been to observe such assets over a longer holding period.
