Bitcoin fell below $83,000 at the beginning of the week due to market fluctuations triggered by developments related to the war between the United States and Iran, but still rose by more than 40% in the third quarter before the release of key inflation and employment data.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) continues to consolidate below its opening price in 2026, with only a few days left until the close of the third-quarter candlestick chart, and new resistance levels are preventing the price of BTC from rising further.

Key points:

• Bitcoin closed at its highest level since the end of January at $84,450 on a weekly chart, but after changes in liquidity on the exchange order books, the price fell to a one-week low of $82,557.
• Before the release of this week's inflation data on PCE in August and the non-farm payroll data in September, the market believed that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 0.25% in October was 70%.
• Rekt Capital indicates that Bitcoin must hold above $82,500 in order to replicate the recovery pattern seen during the bear market in 2022.

BTC The price increase exceeded 40% in the third quarter, with the upward momentum cooling down.

After the closing of the weekly chart on Sunday, Bitcoin came under pressure and declined; due to market concerns that the United States might take new actions against Iran, cryptocurrencies fell in tandem with U.S. stock index futures.

TradingView data shows that BTC / USD fell below $83,000, hitting a one-week low. Nevertheless, the weekly closing price of $84,450 remains the highest level for this pair since the end of January.

In a shorter time frame, the liquidity bands that first appeared in the exchange order book and were then withdrawn created artificial resistance to the further upward movement of the BTC price. Data from CoinGlass shows that on Monday, there was approximately $30 million worth of sell orders concentrated around the price of $85,700, which led to a rapid decline in the spot price.

The coming week will also see two important candlestick chart closings. Wednesday marks both the closing of the September monthly line and the closing of the third-quarter quarterly line, both of which will occur near the important BTC price level.

Above the current spot price, there is an opening price of $88,700 for 2026, as well as a cost base of approximately $86,000 for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors. Below that, there is a holding cost of around $80,500 for Bitcoin enterprise vaults, and the overall cost base for active investors, which is True Market Mean, is close to $76,700.

CryptoQuant data shows that investors who recently bought Bitcoin – that is, those who purchased BTC 1 to 4 weeks ago – tend to react more strongly to sudden price fluctuations. Overall, they are still in a profitable position, with a cost base of $78,300.

CoinGlass data shows that BTC / USD has seen a rise of slightly over 40% this quarter, marking the best third-quarter performance since 2017. This figure is significantly higher than the average third-quarter performance of 8.6% for this trading pair since 2013. In contrast, the average return for the fourth quarter during the same period was 77%.

In the United States, before the release of PCE and employment data, hawkish bets on interest rate hikes continue.

As the market further bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish policy, key U.S. inflation data will be released in the coming days.

On Wednesday, the personal consumption expenditure ( PCE ) price index for August will be released. The market expects it to rise by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. PCE is considered the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve "prefers," and this was also confirmed by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh in his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium last month.

The market's probability of a 0.25% interest rate hike in October has risen from 57.7% a week ago to 70.3% on Monday.

The market remains highly sensitive to news regarding the war between the United States and Iran and the resulting fluctuations in oil prices. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal and also did not rule out the possibility of further military action. As a result, WTI crude oil rose by 3% on Monday, returning to $95 per barrel.

Capital Economics Senior Climate and Commodity Economist Hamad Hussain told Reuters that although traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, an important global oil passage, has slightly improved, supply tensions are still dominating market trends.

"Although the increase in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is alleviating some of the upward pressure on prices, the larger context is that the oil market is still in a state of shortage," he said.

WTI Crude Oil CFD The one-hour chart shows that oil prices are still affected by tight supply and demand.

The non-farm payroll data for September, released on Friday, will also provide a new trigger point for volatility in risk assets. Cointelegraph Previously, it was reported that 162,000 new jobs were created in August, far exceeding expectations, which strengthened the hawkish bets of the Federal Reserve, as it indicates that the labor market is performing better than expected amidst accelerating inflation. The market estimated that 83,000 new jobs were created in the U.S. economy last month.

Analysis suggests that it is of crucial importance whether Bitcoin can hold the support level of $82,500.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital continues to monitor the head-and-shoulders reversal pattern on the weekly chart – this classic bullish reversal structure – to determine whether the bear market of 2026 has come to an end. As this pattern unfolds, a long-term accumulation phase is also taking place simultaneously.

In 2023, after BTC / USD completed a head and shoulders reversal pattern, it immediately entered a sideways range above it, which persisted for most of 2023. At that time, the accumulation of funds around $30,000 provided momentum for the next phase of the bull market.

Rekt Capital explained, 'In this cycle, the level of around $82,500 corresponds to the position at the top of the accumulation pattern in 2022.'

He added, "If we fail to convert $82,500 into support, then Bitcoin could return to the range of $60,000 to $80,000 and pull back within that range."

Cointelegraph Previously, it was also reported that various on-chain indicators are mimicking the behavioral patterns at the end of the bear market in 2022.