Iran has increased attacks on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the fragile recovery of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

According to data from the Joint Maritime Information Center ( Joint Maritime Information Center ), a U.S.-allied organization that provides security updates for merchant ships, nearly 20 merchant ships – most of which are oil tankers – have been attacked over the past month while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, or near the coast of Oman.

An advanced maritime intelligence analyst from Windward, who tracks ships and provides services to the defense department and government, stated that in the third quarter, Iran attacked about two out of every 100 vessels that crossed the strait.

Currently, the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz depends on significant military commitments from the U.S. military to protect oil tankers traveling along the southern route along the coast of Oman.

Analysts say that with the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz still being dangerous, it is unclear how long the rebound in crude oil exports can last without a negotiated solution or concessions from Tehran.

Interconnecting transportation system

In many cases, oil tankers first transport crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and then transfer it to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman, which in turn carry it to Asia. This transshipment system reduces the risk of attacks from Iran, but it also requires more vessels to transport the crude oil.

Rapidan Energy George W. Bush, former U.S. President and former energy advisor to President Bob McNally, said, "No one in Washington believes this is fiscally sustainable." He was referring to the United States' military commitments in the Gulf region, ship-to-ship transshipment, and higher freight rates for oil tankers. "This is an inefficient way of transporting bulk commodities, not just oil, to get the goods out of the Strait of Hormuz."

According to the Kpler data that tracks oil tankers and global trade flows, the volume of crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz fluctuates daily, sometimes reaching levels comparable to or even exceeding those before the Iran war.

But at other times, exports are below the levels before the conflict. Data released on Monday Kpler showed that for the week ending last Saturday, crude oil shipments averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day, which is approximately 23% lower than the pre-war benchmark of 13.5 million barrels per day.

Windward It is estimated that currently, the average volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is between 9 and 10 million barrels per day, whereas the pre-war benchmark was 14.5 million barrels per day.

Analysts say that although there are significant fluctuations in crude oil flows, they have clearly rebounded compared to the early stages of the war, as the US military has successfully established a shipping route along the coast of Oman for transportation.

High costs

However, Bockmann indicates that shippers face high costs in transporting crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, including not only the safety of the crew but also freight and insurance fees. According to data from the United Nations agency, the International Maritime Organization, since July, at least 9 seafarers have died, 18 have been injured, and another 3 are missing.

“Although the volume of transportation is being carried out, it is done under extremely high maritime risks,” said Bockmann. As the security situation deteriorates, the cost of transporting crude oil from the Persian Gulf to China has soared to $1 million per tanker per day.

The editor-in-chief of the London maritime industry trade publication "Lloyd's Daily" ( Lloyd 's List ), Richard Meade, stated in a briefing last Thursday: "The oil flow has resumed because market participants have accepted higher operational complexity and higher costs."

However, he stated that the threat to oil tankers has not changed. Despite more crude oil being transported out of the Strait of Hormuz, the international benchmark Brent crude oil price remains hovering around $100 per barrel.

The McNally of Rapidan said, "If the market believes that this situation is sustainable, I think you will see even lower prices." He stated that prices remain high because "transporting crude oil, insuring it, and delivering it to the consumer regions where pricing benchmarks are located is still very costly."

McNally also said that although more oil is being transported abroad, the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not been restored. Tehran still insists that it controls this strait.

According to a report from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre ( United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre ), on Monday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards intercepted an oil tanker passing through the strait and ordered the ship to turn around, threatening that otherwise it would face an attack. The ship complied with the order.

Meade said, "The oil market has not become any safer. It has merely become more adept at operating in a continuously unsafe environment."