Allentown, Pennsylvania – Mortgage rates are rising significantly, housing prices continue to climb, and inflation in the broader economy is also impacting consumers. These factors have made the affordability of housing a common burden for both tenants and potential homebuyers.

In Pennsylvania – a swing state where the House of Representatives election may determine control of the next U.S. Congress – the cost of both renting and buying a home is lower than the national average, but the proportion of income required to afford them has also been rising, similar to other regions across the country. According to Cotality data, in 2019, renting required 20% of median income, and buying a home required 18%; today, these figures have risen to 22% and 24%, respectively.

Christopher Borick, a professor of political science at the University of Lehigh, said: "For those who want to rent an apartment, for those who want to move from an apartment to their first home, and for those who want to upgrade from their first home to a larger one, every one of these groups is facing significant challenges at the moment, and this has become a focal point of concern in a very important political region."

A quarterly survey on finances released on October 5th by CNBC and SurveyMonkey indicates that Americans, particularly renters, are facing financial strain due to housing costs. The survey found that one-fifth of renters or those with mortgages spend more than half of their pre-tax income on housing, while another 49% spend between 25% and 49% of their income on housing. Standard guidelines from banks and lending institutions typically recommend that consumers should spend 28% to 30% of their income on housing.

According to the latest CNBC National Economic Survey, among American voters aged 18 to 34, housing costs have now become the most important political issue, even surpassing food prices or the protection of democracy.

After entering the mid-term election cycle, data from Mortgage News Daily shows that the average interest rate for popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has soared to over 7.5%. Just a few days before the start of the war with Iran, this rate was as low as 5.99%. For buyers of a house with a median price of about $450,000, this means that the monthly payment has increased by approximately $300 since the beginning of this year.

Although housing prices have cooled down from the period of significant increases in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest data from Cotality shows that housing prices still rose by 1.8% year-on-year in August. Since the start of the pandemic, housing prices have increased by nearly 60%. At the same time as mortgage rates have risen sharply, potential buyers are increasingly being kept out of the market. In August, the sales volume of second-hand homes decreased compared to the same period last year, with an annualized rate of less than 4 million units.

Economist in Real Estate at the University of San Diego Business School and retired professor Norm Miller said, "The figure of 4 million is already close to the lowest level we have seen. This indicates that the issue of affordability is extremely serious."

Nationwide, the proportion of median income required for renting or purchasing a home is on the rise, with the increase in homeownership rates being the most significant. Cotality data shows that in 2019, renting a home required 24% of the median income nationwide, while purchasing a home required 21%; today, these figures are 26% and 28% respectively. In some markets, especially in the metropolitan areas of the East and West Coasts, these numbers are much higher.

Another report from Apartment List found that 52% of renters in the United States are considered to be overburdened by housing costs, meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing. This proportion soared sharply between 2019 and 2022 as rents increased significantly in the early stages of the pandemic. Over 22 million households in the U.S. are now considered to be overburdened by rent, setting a new record.

In the Lehigh Valley area, which encompasses Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, 19% of the residents are young people, making it one of the state's most closely contested districts. According to the CIRCLE Youth Election Importance Index from Tufts University, this district ranks 8th among all congressional districts in the nation, and young voters may have the strongest influence on the mid-term elections.

In that electoral district, for a family to afford a typical two-bedroom rental property with housing expenses not exceeding 30% of their income, their annual income would need to reach $67,481. According to the latest congressional district overview from the National Low-Income Housing Coalition, the corresponding "housing wage" is $32.44 per hour.

Borick said, "We have seen changes in the landscape of housing costs and access to the rental market, which has actually amplified other broader concerns we have regarding affordability in a rather significant way. So when you talk to local voters and residents and ask them what they are most worried about right now, housing is always very close to the top of the list."

The 33-year-old Jessica Heller has just gotten married. She and her husband are currently renting a house from a friend in Alondon at a discounted price. She said that even though both of them earn six-figure annual salaries, they don't expect to be able to buy a house in the near future.

Heller said, "Unless I can come up with a down payment of $50,000 – but where are you going to get that kind of money from? – otherwise your mortgage will still be around $2,000, $3,000, $4,000 per month. Some of the oldest and most run-down houses in Arlington are still selling for $400,000. It feels like we simply can't afford our first home, nor can we use it as an investment."

Most tenants wish to own their own housing, but not many are actually expected to be able to do so. Surveys by CNBC and SurveyMonkey show that nearly three-quarters of Americans believe that buying a house has become more difficult over the past five years. The survey results also indicate that nearly a quarter of tenants have no plans to buy a house at all, with limited down payments and income being the main obstacles.

The current Republican Representative Ryan Mackenzie is engaged in a debate with Democrat Bob Brooks. Mackenzie emphasizes his support for the affordable housing tax credit included in the 2025 budget bill. In January, they jointly initiated the "Making Housing More Affordable in America Act" (Make American Housing Affordable Act), which would provide tax credits for first-time homebuyers, but the bill has not yet been voted on.

In a statement, Mackenzie wrote: 'One of the most concerning issues for families in the Lehigh Valley and Pocono regions is the affordability of housing. After years of soaring housing prices, first-time homebuyers deserve some relief.'

Brooks also makes the affordability of housing a key topic of discussion.

He said, "We need to build more first-time homes, crack down on corporate landlords and rent gouging, and expand programs to help first-time homebuyers take that first step. Yes, sometimes we also need to reduce the rules and red tape that make building homes more difficult and expensive."

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, in that electoral district, 54% of tenants spend more than 30% of their income on rent. Zillow Data shows that housing prices in Alton have risen by nearly 4% year-on-year. Alton has particularly experienced a significant increase in both rent and housing prices, as some former residents of New York City and Philadelphia have moved here in search of cheaper accommodation, although this may seem somewhat ironic.

Miller said, "If you look at markets like the Greater London area, to afford a house there, one would need to spend nearly 60% of the average tenant family's income, which is slightly higher than the national average."

26-year-old Blake Fontaine still lives with his mother in Easton. He says he earns a six-figure annual salary from one of the larger local employers in ADP, has saved some money, and also wants to move out, but he simply cannot afford the costs involved.

Fontaine said, "When I started looking at housing prices, I completely backed off." He also stated that he would not be participating in the upcoming elections. "It's like asking me to spend 500,000 dollars on the same thing that my mother spent 100,000 dollars on back in the day. That just doesn't make any sense at all."

In another closely contested district—the 10th Congressional District of Pennsylvania—current Republican Representative Scott Perry will face off against Democrat Janelle Stelson. Perry is the only Congressman from Pennsylvania who voted against the bipartisan Affordable Housing Act, the "21st Century ROAD Housing Act" (21st Century ROAD to Housing Act), which was signed into law in July.

Perry wrote on social media: 'For over 50 years, the federal government has been throwing money at the housing problem – and that has led to the current housing crisis. The more money we invest, the more expensive housing becomes.'

His opponent, Stelson, proposed a housing affordability plan that includes expanding small-scale housing loans and reducing regulations on residential construction.

During a campaign event in front of a new apartment building in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, Stelson said, "I will vote to repeal the tariffs on wood and gypsum boards supported by [Pennsylvania] Congressman Scott Perry, as these tariffs are driving up the cost of every house we build."

The number of municipalities in Pennsylvania is exceptionally large, which has exacerbated builders' complaints about local zoning regulations across the country. As stated by Borick from Lehigh University, this has also led to a multitude of municipal rules.

He said, "I don't think that in the short term, or even in a not-so-short term, you will see any real changes in consumers' attitudes towards this particular area of affordability."