Newsletter
- Bitcoin rebounded 1.38% to $82,837 on Friday, after falling to $80,427 on Thursday; the total market value of cryptocurrencies rose 2% to $2.8 trillion, while the Fear and Greed Index fell back to a neutral 56.
- It is reported that as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 5.32% and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting hinted at the possibility of another interest rate hike before the end of the year, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $484.9 million on Wednesday, followed by another outflow of $244 million on Thursday.
- Myriad Traders estimate a 67% probability that Bitcoin will fall to or below $80,000 at some point before the end of October.
On Friday, the crypto market managed to catch its breath for a brief period, with the total market value rising by 2.1% to $2.89 trillion. However, this rebound only managed to recover some of the lost ground, as just a week ago the market's total value was still above $3 trillion, at a time when Bitcoin was approaching its annual high.
Despite some recovery, traders remain nervous. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 56, which is in a neutral range, lower than the 71 recorded on October 2nd; at that time, the index was still firmly in the "greedy" zone.
Wall Street is also in a state of unease. According to the tracking data from Decrypt's ETF, Bitcoin alone saw an outflow of $484.9 million on Wednesday, marking its worst single-day performance since June 25th, and another outflow of $244 million on Thursday.
On Friday, Bitcoin traded at around $82,837, up 1.38% for the day; earlier on Thursday, it had fallen to $80,427, the lowest level since early September.
The daily candlestick chart opened at $81,711, with intraday fluctuations ranging between $81,553 and $83,443. On the four-hour chart, the price is still below the 50-period exponential moving average, indicating that the short-term trend has not yet reversed.
The forecasting market Myriad, owned by Dastan (the parent company of Decrypt), gives a 67% probability that Bitcoin will fall to or below $80,000 at some point within October; among this, the probability of falling to $77,500 is 40%, and the probability of falling to $75,000 is 24%.
Another market, which calculates on a weekly basis, suggests a 49% probability that Bitcoin will close above $87,500 this week. This indicates that traders expect prices to remain in a consolidation phase this month, while still leaving room for further declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is used to measure buying pressure within a range of 0 to 100. The current reading is 51.2, which is also at a neutral level and consistent with the Fear & Greed Index. Reports suggest that this is worth noting, as Bitcoin seems to be cooling down from an overbought phase.
The Luke Deans of Bitwise Europe indicates that the $83,000 range overlaps with the position average holding cost of ETF and a previous higher high point, so it will become the first test for this round of rebound.
He stated that if one could re-establish a position in that area, the price is expected to move towards $84,433; however, the September high of $87,354.33 remains the upper ceiling that bulls need to effectively break through with a daily closing price.
