UnitedHealth ( UnitedHealth , UNH ) is scheduled to release its third-quarter earnings on October 13th. Prior to the release of the third-quarter financial report, Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan reiterated a "buy" rating on UNH stock after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ( CMS ) issued a 2027 Medicare Part C rating and a D-star rating. Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst Ryan Langston reiterated a "hold" rating on UNH stock and lowered the target price from $430 to $402.
Langston It is expected that UnitedHealth will provide its preliminary outlook for 2027 during the third-quarter earnings conference call. Based on UNH past historical trends, this analyst predicts that the company's earnings per share ( EPS ) growth guidance for 2027 will be in line with the market's expected 14%, or possibly lower than that level.
Tassan indicates that according to the latest 2027 star rating based on the insurance participation data from CMS for September 2026, the proportion of members with contracts rated 4.0 stars or above is 24.5% in Alignment Healthcare ( ALHC ), 69.3% in CVS Health ( CVS ), 93.4% in Humana ( HUM ), and 66.8% in UnitedHealth .
This analyst believes that the star rating of UNH reflects resilience and that it is “underestimated.” At a trading price of about 14 times the estimated earnings per share adjusted for 2028, Tassan considers UNH to be the “most actionable” target among the Medicare Advantage (Federal Medicare Advantage Plans) companies it covers. “We will buy this stock before the third-quarter financial report in 2026,” Tassan stated.
TD Cowen's views on UNH's third-quarter financial report prospects
Langston believes that the market's consensus expectations for a medical reimbursement rate of 89.9% ( MLR ) and earnings per share in the third quarter of 2026 are "completely achievable," and moreover, the Optum Health business may still have room for growth. This analyst pointed out that during the second-quarter financial report conference call in 2026, management stated that earnings per share for the second half of the year were expected to account for one-third of the annual earnings, with earnings per share in the third quarter of 2026 being "slightly higher" than those in the fourth quarter.
In addition, Langston emphasizes that the market's consensus forecast for Optum Health's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the third quarter is $299 million, while the company's guidance is around $150 million; however, in the first half of the year, EBIT exceeded the market consensus forecast by nearly $630 million each time on average.
Langston also pointed out that at a meeting in mid-September, management stated that the favorable momentum from the second quarter and the continuation of the trend in medical costs extended into the third quarter, which supported their confidence in the underlying profit path.
UNH Is it worth buying now?
Before the release of the third-quarter financial report for 2026, Wall Street gave UnitedHealth's stock a consensus market rating of "strong buy" based on 17 "buy" and 4 "hold" ratings. The average target price for UNH stock is $485, which indicates a potential upside of about 28%. Since the beginning of the year, the price of UNH stock has risen by 17%.
