If the U.S. stock market experiences a significant correction, Bitcoin prices could fall again. Market analysts believe that the range of $63,000 to $75,000 serves as a potential support level. Historical data shows that during periods of selling off in major markets, Bitcoin typically experiences larger declines than the U.S. stock market. This also raises concerns that if the S&P 500 falls by 20%, it could have an impact on Bitcoin.
Why would a stock market crash affect Bitcoin?
When there is a sell-off in the market, investors tend to reduce their exposure to risky assets, which puts pressure on both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has exhibited this pattern during previous market downturns.
Since 2014, the S&P 500 has fallen by at least 10% from its historical highs on 6 occasions. In 5 of these 6 instances, Bitcoin's decline was greater than that of the index. During the major downturns at the end of 2018, in 2020, 2022, and 2025, Bitcoin's decline ranged from approximately 21% to 66%.
How low could Bitcoin fall?
The S&P 500 closed at around 7,710 on October 20, less than 2% below the record high set on October 6. If it were to fall 20% from that high, the index would drop to around 6,250.
The potential downside for Bitcoin will depend on the severity of the stock market correction. Based on comparisons with previous downturns, this analyst has outlined three scenarios:
- $67,500: A decline similar to the market correction in 2025.
- $43,000: A scenario similar to the sell-off in 2020.
- $29,000: a deeper decline similar to that during the bear market in 2022.
These figures are merely illustrative scenarios and not confirmed forecasts. The support range currently suggested by this analyst is between $63,000 and $75,000.
Is Bitcoin approaching a new round of decline?
This analyst stated that the rise of the S&P 500 since summer has become unbalanced, indicating that the index may be approaching its short-term peak. However, the market has not yet confirmed a significant decline, and it is still possible for it to continue to rise to new historical highs.
Bitcoin has currently fallen by about one-third from its own historical high, which may limit further declines. However, over the past six weeks, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen to around 0.6, indicating that their recent trends are more closely aligned.
In the short term, this analyst is focusing on whether Bitcoin can continue to rebound to $85,700. If the rebound loses momentum, a new round of decline may occur.
Can Bitcoin rebound after the stock market crash?
Although Bitcoin fell more sharply during previous sell-offs, it tends to recover within a few months after the stock market hits bottom. In the 6 historical cases examined in the article, in 5 of them, the trading price of BTC was higher 6 months after the S&P 500 hit bottom. Its median increase during this period was approximately 58%.
However, this analyst reminds that the current market may behave differently. A pullback in the stock market could deepen the decline of Bitcoin, and any rebound timing and strength will depend on the subsequent performance of the two major markets.
Currently, the key question is whether the S&P 500 will be able to maintain its upward trend, or whether it will start a more significant pullback, which could put additional pressure on Bitcoin.
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