Market Overview
Before trading on Monday, futures of the three major indices all rose. Last week, the market focused on the AI debt issue. Dow Jones Index futures rose by 0.31%, Nasdaq Composite Index futures rose by 0.31%, and S&P 500 Index futures rose by 0.21%.
Trump stated on Sunday that he would not launch strikes that day, and summarized his options as either reaching an agreement with Iran or "resolving the issue completely." International oil prices fell; the main contract for $WTI crude oil futures ($2611) ($CLmain.US) dropped by 2%, and the main contract for $Brent crude oil (cash) futures ($2612) ($BZmain.US) fell by 1.43%.
U.S. Treasury bonds mostly rose, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ($US10Y.BD)$ remaining high.
Cryptocurrencies are falling.
Precious metals have seen a slight increase.
$Star tech stocks ( LIST2518.US )$ are mostly higher at the start of trading; Micron Technology has risen by 1.71%, and Cisco has gained nearly 1%.
$Storage Concept ( LIST23925.US )$ The stock market rose before the opening, with SK Hynix rising by over 2% and Sandisk rising by over 1%.
$Optical Communication ( LIST23979.US )$ concept stocks saw a collective rise before the market opened, with Lumentum, Coherent, and Credo Technology rising by more than 1%.
Individual Stock News
Meta Launches Approximately $35 Billion in Equity Financing, NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom Plan to Subscribe
$ Meta Platforms ( META.US )$ announces the simultaneous launch of two public offerings, totaling approximately $35 billion: one is the issuance of $22.5 billion in Class A common stock through a forward sale agreement, and the other is the issuance of approximately $12.5 billion in convertible preferred stock depositary shares. The company plans to grant underwriters a 30-day over-allotment option to subscribe for an additional 37.5 million depositary shares and up to $3.375 billion in Class A common stock. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs act as the lead joint bookrunners. NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom have expressed non-binding interest to subscribe for up to $5 billion in Class A common stock at the same price and terms. Meta states that the funds raised will be used for general corporate purposes, including AI infrastructure investments. The company expects its capital expenditure in 2026 to be between $135 billion and $145 billion. In addition, Meta also plans to launch a program to issue approximately $60 billion in Class C common stock at market price starting from the first quarter of 2027. Meta shares are up more than 2% so far.
Lula's unexpected re-election leads to a collective plunge in Brazil's assets in the US
Elon Musk claims that over 200 new cloud service providers will “face mass extinction,” with CoreWeave and others under increased pressure again
On Sunday, Musk posted on X that in the past few weeks, the debt market has almost completely cut off financing channels for companies that lack substantial revenue outside of AI data centers. "This means that over 200 new cloud providers will face a mass 'guppy-style' death and consolidation. Some may survive, but not many," Musk said. Musk also stated that $SpaceX ($SPCX.US)$ will not acquire any new cloud providers. The CEO of $NEBIUS ($NBIS.US)$, Volozh, previously admitted that some sources of funding have temporarily dried up, but the company has enough funds to complete a 1-gigawatt expansion plan; Nebius announced last Thursday that it had received $3.5 billion in debt financing from Citibank. According to CNBC, the stock prices of CoreWeave and Nebius have both fallen by more than 30% in the past month, with Iren having fallen by approximately 40% in total. As of press time, $CoreWeave ($CRWV.US)$ is down nearly 4% before trading, $NEBIUS ($NBIS.US) has fallen by more than 1%, and $IREN Ltd ($IREN.US) has fallen by nearly 3%.
SpaceX Completes $40 Billion in Debt Financing for the Acquisition of GPU
On Sunday, Musk stated on X that $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ has completed a $40 billion debt financing round to purchase GPU for driving artificial intelligence systems. He mentioned that SpaceX has an investment-grade rating and generates revenue from Starlink satellite internet and rocket launch services. In subsequent posts, Musk added that this financing is mainly for redeemable debt, with funds expected to be available in the first and second quarters of 2027. Previously, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that SpaceX was in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to purchase NVIDIA chips, planning to do so through a special purpose entity to keep the debt off of SpaceX's balance sheet and maintain its investment-grade credit rating. According to CNBC, SpaceX operates its own data centers and sells computing power, making it a direct competitor to new cloud providers.
SK Hynix announced a shareholder return plan on Wednesday, possibly distributing about $12 billion in special dividends
Earlier reports stated that $ SK Hyundai Electronics ($ SKHY.US )$ is considering distributing a special dividend of approximately 16 trillion Korean won (about 12 billion US dollars), mainly from the approximately 20 trillion Korean won in earnings recorded from its holdings in SK Hynix shares in the first half of this year. $ SK Hyundai Electronics responded that the company is evaluating various shareholder return options, and no decisions have been made regarding the special dividend yet. The relevant measures will be announced along with the third-quarter results after the board of directors' resolution on October 28th; the company has also stopped evaluating the $ Solidigm operations of its US subsidiary. As of press time, $ SK Hyundai Electronics shares were up nearly 3% before the market opened.
Moderna Complete cancer vaccine data released, continued decline before the market opens
$ Moderna ( MRNA.US )$ and $Merck ($ MRK.US )$ announced on Saturday at the ESMO conference's chairperson session the complete Phase INTerpath-001 data for the individualized mRNA cancer vaccine intismeran in combination with Keytruda for adjuvant treatment of postoperative melanoma. At a median follow-up of 24.6 months, the combined therapy reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% compared to monotherapy with Keytruda, and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38%, with a 2-year recurrence-free survival rate of 82.2% versus 70.0%. However, the overall survival data are not yet mature and have not reached the preset significance threshold of HR 0.77; the confidence intervals for some smaller subgroups exceed 1, including the results for distant metastasis in the US subgroup based on 10 events. Following the premature leakage of some data on October 22nd, Moderna tumbled 26% on that day, closing down 17.57%. As of press time, Moderna has fallen more than 8% so far.
Apple's first foldable screen iPhone Duo sold out immediately upon release; Taiwanese media reports: Apple has requested suppliers to increase orders by 30%
Apple's ($AAPL.US) first foldable phone, the iPhone, was launched globally on October 23rd with a starting price of $1,999, and the higher-storage version sold for over $3,000. It was nearly sold out immediately after its release. On Monday, Taiwan's Economic Daily cited industry insiders stating that Apple has requested its supply chain to accelerate production and increased orders by 30%. This year, the estimated shipment volume is expected to rise from about 6 million units to 8 to 10 million units, with shipments in 2027 expected to reach 33 million units. The second wave of shipments is anticipated to begin on January 22nd; Apple has not yet commented on this. It is worth noting that reports of a 30% increase in orders were mentioned by the media in mid-month, and this latest report provides additional details on the shipment forecasts. The iPhone is assembled by Foxconn, with the core processor manufactured by TSMC. Additionally, users from various regions have reported screen cracking issues with some iPhone units on social media, but Apple has not yet responded to these reports. In terms of stock prices, Apple's market value briefly surpassed that of NVIDIA during trading on Friday, but it was still slightly lower than NVIDIA at the close of the day.
Amazon CEO: AWS The production capacity for 2027 has been almost fully sold out, and most of the capacity for 2028 has already been reserved.
Amazon ($AMZN.US') CEO Andy Jassy stated last Friday in a video podcast on a16z that the cloud computing capacity for AWS was sold out by 2026, and was also essentially sold out by 2027, with a considerable portion of the capacity for 2028 already reserved. He mentioned that the company will always reserve some capacity for on-demand services and inference services Bedrock, EC2, but "almost all of the larger capacity blocks have been sold out." Jassy noted that Amazon is having difficulty keeping up with the strong demand from AI laboratories and enterprise customers, and considering that the capacity is sold out, the company "can invest more funds, and this would not be a poor use of capital." Earlier this year, Amazon announced that its capital expenditure for 2026 was approximately $220 billion. The podcast was hosted by a16z co-founder Ben Horowitz and partner Erik Torenberg. According to Reuters, Amazon is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on October 29th (Thursday, Eastern Time).
Bon Secours acquires a majority stake in Surgery Partners for an estimated valuation of $6 billion
According to a report by the British Financial Times, the non-profit healthcare group Bon Secours Mercy Health is in final negotiations to acquire a majority stake in the outpatient surgery center operator $Surgery Partners (SGRY.US). The privatization deal values the company at approximately $6 billion (including debt), which is about $20 per share, representing a increase of around 27% from its closing price of $15.75 last Friday. It is reported that Bain Capital, a private equity firm that currently holds nearly 40% of the shares in Surgery Partners, will retain its holdings, and the transaction could be announced as early as Monday. As of press time, the shares of Surgery Partners have risen by nearly 24%.
Global Macroeconomics
The Federal Reserve met on interest rates on Wednesday, and the market bet that it would remain unchanged with a rate hike expected in December.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, October 28th, Eastern Time. According to CNBC, federal funds futures indicate that the market believes there is about a 90% probability that the Fed will maintain the interest rate range between 3.75% and 4%; according to CME FedWatch, traders are betting that there is a 75% chance of a rate hike in December. There is still disagreement among institutions: an economist from Bank of America, Claudio Irigoyen, expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this week, stating that the October meeting will test Chairman Powell's determination to change the forward guidance strategy. If a rate hike occurs, investors may worry about excessive tightening; if no action is taken, the market may question the Fed's credibility in fighting inflation. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, stated in a report that it expects the Fed to skip a rate hike in October but may raise rates for the second time in December, with the main risk being oil prices exceeding its forecasts, which mainly reflects market concerns about a possible resumption of tensions between the United States and Iran.
Super Central Bank Week coincides with GDP and PCE; the U.S. data schedule is dense.
In addition to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions on Thursday and Friday respectively. The market expects both to maintain their current interest rates; according to Reuters, the market is also betting that the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise interest rates this week, with the latter widely expected to do so on Wednesday. Regarding U.S. data, on Tuesday this week, there will be releases on September ADP employment changes, September durable goods orders, and the October consumer confidence index; on Thursday, there will be releases on the third-quarter GDP, September PCE price index, and the initial jobless claims for the week. According to Reuters, the market expects the U.S. core PCE in September to remain at a high of 3.1% year-on-year, with the third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate expected to reach 3.2%, partly due to strong spending related to data centers. Pepperstone research director Chris Weston stated that forward guidance may be even more important than the interest rate decisions themselves, and the key lies in how policymakers shape the market's expectations for subsequent meetings.
Trump says a trilateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will take place "soon"; the Kremlin says negotiations can resume after November 4
On October 25th local time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the trilateral talks regarding Ukraine between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine would take place "soon," but no specific date was given. He mentioned that both Russia and Ukraine were interested in reaching an agreement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the three parties planned to hold technical-level discussions in November, with the location still to be determined; Abu Dhabi was among the options being considered. The initial discussions are expected to focus on energy infrastructure and a ceasefire in areas related to the Black Sea. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov indicated that Russia was ready to resume the trilateral negotiations after November 4th, but noted that the first contact was merely a "test run" and should not lead to excessive expectations. Previously, the White House announced that, under U.S. mediation, Russia and Ukraine had reached a partial humanitarian ceasefire in Oleshki, which was set to begin on October 29th. The Kremlin stated on Monday that this ceasefire could set a precedent for similar ceasefires in other regions. In addition, Trump described the oil agreement reached with Russia as "a very good thing."
Trump threatens further military action against Iran; Qatari mediators head to Tehran
The situation between the United States and Iran remains a focal point in the energy market. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump stated last Friday that the United States might take military action against Iran again, while Iran threatened retaliation, including attacks on undersea cables. Al Jazeera cited reports that the U.S. Central Command was prepared with plans to strike Iran, with potential targets including energy facilities, infrastructure, and nuclear sites, but no orders had been given yet; Trump said on Sunday that no strikes would be launched that day, and he described his approach as either reaching an agreement with Iran or "resolving the issue completely." Previously, there were reports that the United States and Israel might plan to strike Iran after the U.S. midterms on November 3rd. On the other hand, a knowledgeable official revealed to Reuters that Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday to coordinate with the United States to cool down the regional tensions. Reuters noted that the decline in oil prices on Monday may be partly related to this.
S&P: Local opposition in the United States intensifies, raising credit risk for data centers
Standard & Poor's Global Ratings released a report last Friday stating that local opposition to data centers in the United States is becoming an important factor affecting the creditworthiness of these projects. The report found that 146 data center projects in the U.S. have been postponed or canceled, with about three-quarters of these cases related to local opposition. The report focused on the suspension orders in states such as New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Arizona. Analysts at Standard & Poor's, including Chris Mooney, pointed out that delays caused by grid capacity, environmental sustainability concerns, and adjustments to zoning regulations "may increase downward pressure on the credit profiles of data center projects." If suspension orders, slowed approvals, or policy reversals lead to significant project delays, developers may face risks such as reduced rent deductions or even termination of lease agreements by tenants. Standard & Poor's noted that the impact on ratings is still limited for now. On the same day, Standard & Poor's disclosed that it has rated 32 digital infrastructure transactions in North America, with a total debt issuance amounting to $105.3 billion.
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$Kengteng Electronics ( CDNS.US )$, $Tianhong Technology ( CLS.US )$, $ Rambus ( RMBS.US )$, $Aimark Technology ( AMKR.US )$
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