The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, maintaining the benchmark interest rate range between 3.75% and 4%, following a 25-basis-point hike in September. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of another rate hike being priced in by the market is less than 10%, but traders believe there is a greater likelihood of a hike in December.
Since no new dot matrices or economic forecasts will be announced at this meeting, market attention will turn to the press conference chaired by Kevin Warsh. The Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, the Lorie Logan of the Dallas Federal Reserve, and the Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve are all likely to vote against it, as they opposed keeping interest rates unchanged in July.
JPMorgan Chase' chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli stated that Warsh needs to explain why the Federal Reserve chose to raise interest rates in August despite the core PCE only rising by 0.2%, but may pause interest rate hikes against the backdrop of an expected 0.3% increase in the core PCE in September.
When this decision was announced, there was less than a week left until the U.S. mid-term elections.










