Key Points
- Despite the company achieving record profits, the cryptocurrency revenue of Robinhood has still seen a decline.
- The revenue generated by the prediction market today has surpassed that of the crypto industry.
- Diversification of business has reduced the company's dependence on a single business, but it has not eliminated the risks associated with speculative trading.
A large part of Robinhood's reputation is built on making it easier for ordinary investors to participate in stock and cryptocurrency trading. However, in the third quarter of 2026, one of its most representative businesses experienced a significant reversal: cryptocurrency trading revenue plummeted by 55% compared to the same period last year.
However, the total revenue of Robinhood did not shrink; instead, it reached a record high of 1.42 billion US dollars.
The reason lies in a business transformation that began several years ago. According to the financial report released on October 27 by Robinhood, the predicted market business generated $173 million in revenue for that quarter, while cryptocurrency trading revenue was only $120 million.
Robinhood How to Turn Predictive Business into a $173 Million Business
Robinhood's attempts at predicting the market began in March 2025, when the company launched a related platform in collaboration with the federally regulated exchange Kalshi.
Unlike traditional stocks, event contracts allow customers to trade around clear outcomes, such as the release of economic data, the results of sporting events, or future asset prices. Traders typically purchase these types of contracts, and their profits depend on whether a specific event occurs or not.
This business has expanded rapidly. Robinhood generated revenue of only 27 million US dollars from event contracts in the third quarter of 2025, which then increased to 101 million US dollars in the fourth quarter.
By the second quarter of 2026, forecasted business revenue had reached $156 million, and it had already surpassed the income from the company's traditional stock trading business.
Three months later, the event contract business generated $173 million in revenue, and the number of contracts traded by customers also reached a new high of 16.4 billion.
However, the number of trading contracts is not equivalent to revenue. Robinhood generates income through its trading arrangements; therefore, the number of contracts, the level of fees, and the activity of transactions all affect the final revenue.
The company also operates Rothera – this is the exchange and clearing institution business it carries out in collaboration with Susquehanna, which adds another layer to its market expansion strategy.
Why hasn't the decline in encrypted business stopped the growth of Robinhood?
Encrypted business revenue decreased from $268 million in the same period last year to $120 million, reflecting a decline in participation and transaction activity.
Robinhood Earlier financial reports have actually shown how quickly revenue related to cryptocurrencies can decline when market enthusiasm fades.
But other businesses have filled this gap.
Option business revenue increased by 31% to reach $399 million; stock trading revenue was $121 million; net interest income contributed an additional $415 million.
At the same time, the number of Robinhood Gold subscribers reached 5.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 34%; the platform's total assets increased to 396 billion US dollars.
The company is also developing blockchain infrastructure. Its Robinhood Chain generated $26 million in attributable crypto business revenue in the third quarter, indicating that digital assets remain part of the company's strategy.
Robinhood Is it really reducing its reliance on speculation?
Diversification of business provides Robinhood with more revenue-generating opportunities, but this does not necessarily mean that the business will become more stable.
The prediction market, like cryptocurrencies and options, relies heavily on trading activity. Its rapid growth has also brought about regulatory uncertainties, especially in regards to contracts related to sports.
As some states challenge certain event contracts, it has become particularly important to predict the boundaries between the betting market and sports wagering.
Despite record revenue, Robinhood's net profit still decreased by 14% to $476 million, indicating that business expansion itself is also accompanied by costs.
Adrian Cole
Adrian Cole has been engaged in financial market reporting for over 6 years, with a focus on cryptocurrencies, stocks, and macroeconomic trends. He tracks Bitcoin, major altcoins, the U.S. stock market, interest rates, commodities, as well as data that drives market fluctuations. Over the years, he has written hundreds of articles on market dynamics and analysis, with an emphasis on price trends, investor sentiment, and the connections between traditional finance and digital assets.
