Bitcoin ( BTC ) remained above the 100-day moving average on Monday, as the market waited and saw before the release of the U.S. mid-term elections results, employment data, and the financial reports of Apple and Palantir.

Key points:

• Kalshi Traders estimate the probability of Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives at 93.6%, with the U.S. mid-term elections to be held on Tuesday.
• U.S. non-farm employment is expected to increase by 65,000 in October, while the market tends to believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.
• Bitcoin holds above the 100-day moving average, and trader Rekt Capital compares its price chart with the rebound in 2023.

After the mid-term elections, the control of the U.S. Congress will be determined, and market traders generally predict that the Democratic Party will win the House of Representatives.

As of Monday, Kalshi indicated a 93.6% probability that the Democratic Party would win the House of Representatives.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that if Democrats take control of Congress, he will use his veto power.

“I think I’ll become the ‘Mr. Veto.’ They’ll bring things up, and you just veto them,” he told The New York Post.

Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter of the past three years of mid-term elections in the United States with declines; in 2014 it fell by 17.3%, in 2018 by 43.5%, and in 2022 by 14.8%. All three of these periods coincided with bear markets for Bitcoin.

The founder and CEO of the encryption analysis platform IntoTheCryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, believes that mid-term elections often become a signal for an increase in BTC exposure due to their short-term bearish impact on prices.

He said on X last Friday: "Usually, the decline in the fourth quarter of a midterm election year only provides buying opportunities for those who sold a long time ago."

In July this year, Cowen mentioned that the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market often coincides with the second half of years with mid-term elections.

According to CoinGlass data, as of Monday, BTC / USD has fallen by 6.4% this quarter, following a weak October performance not seen since 2014.

Employment data and tech stock performance meet market expectations

U.S. job vacancy data for September will be released on Tuesday, while the October non-farm payroll report will be published on Friday.

The market expects that non-farm employment will increase by 65,000 people. Previously, in September, the U.S. economy added 29,000 new jobs, which was lower than the expected 84,000. If this is the case, it would theoretically increase the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to send dovish signals, and this is usually beneficial for the liquidity of cryptocurrencies and risk assets.

Federal Reserve Chairman of Cleveland Beth Hammack and Federal Reserve Board member Michelle Bowman among other officials will also give speeches this week.

Data from CME Group FedWatch tools indicates that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Over the past month, this probability has remained between 67% and 75%.

The University of Michigan will also release the preliminary November consumer confidence survey on Friday, which includes consumers' inflation expectations.

In addition to macroeconomic data, approximately 20% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 index will also release their financial reports in the coming days. Among them, the most closely watched are technology giants Apple and Palantir; both companies will announce their results after the market closes on Monday.

These financial reports come shortly after the sell-off of tech stocks last week, when underwhelming performance guidance once again sparked market concerns regarding the spending and profitability of AI.

Economists Mohamed El - Erian stated in their weekend analysis that the market is now "extremely sensitive" to headlines related to the tech industry.

He wrote, "The market is particularly concerned about the rationality of large-scale capital expenditures across the industry, the return on investment, and revenue growth."

Bitcoin chart resembles the rebound in 2023

After closing down 7.3% in October, Bitcoin is currently still above a moving average that has provided support since mid-August.

TradingView data shows that BTC / USD remained above the low of around $76,300 from last week until the end of the month, without testing that level again.

This low point is close to the 100-day simple moving average of BTC / USD ( SMA ), which has since risen to $76,548.

Bitcoin also managed to regain the 100-week moving average index ( EMA ) before the end of the month, which is currently at $77,759.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital compared the weekly chart with the trend of Bitcoin during its rebound from the bear market lows in 2022. During that rebound, BTC / USD formed a head and shoulders reversal pattern, tested the support of the right shoulder, briefly fell below it, and then rose again.

Last week, Bitcoin fell to $76,300, bringing it back to the right shoulder support level marked by Rekt Capital on the current chart. He is observing whether the price will briefly fall below this level in the coming weeks as the next step in this comparison.

Rekt Capital indicates: "The question now is whether Bitcoin will deviate slightly downward in the coming weeks."