Key Points
- XRP ETF Funds inflow reached $1.81 billion, despite investors still being in a loss-making state
- The estimated book loss has narrowed from nearly $489 million.
- Institutional positions remain substantial, but the inflow of new funds is slowing down.
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted a total of approximately $1.81 billion in net inflows. However, since the price of this cryptocurrency is still below the average purchase price estimated by models, investors are estimated to be facing an unrealized loss of about $440 million.
XRP ETF Losses have eased, but they are still close to $440 million
This calculation is based on the fund's historical subscriptions, redemptions, and the XRP price, and does not represent the official disclosed investor profit and loss data.
When evaluating the holding situation of XRP by various institutions, this distinction is particularly important, involving companies such as Goldman Sachs, Jane Street, and Millennium Management.
The current asset value of these funds is still significantly lower than the cumulative subscription amount, but the difference between the two cannot simply be regarded as a loss for investors.
The cumulative capital flow reflects the net capital entering the fund, while the fund assets are reflected in the market value of the holdings after price changes and fund transactions.
Why has the demand for XRP ETF slowed down?
Since September, institutional demand has significantly weakened. Previously, the XRP fund often attracted tens of millions of dollars in capital inflows during a single trading day.
The market previously recorded 13 consecutive weeks of net capital inflows, even though the prices of these cryptocurrencies were falling at that time.
But thereafter, this trend reversed.
On November 2nd, the 5 products under tracking recorded a total net outflow of approximately $530,000, which was mainly concentrated in the XRPC fund of Canary Capital.
A report snapshot from November 3rd shows that among the funds for which data has been disclosed, there were no new net subscriptions or net redemptions. However, there are still several disclosures that have not yet been published.
At the same time, the continuous accumulation by ETF earlier on has led to a total holding of over 1 billion XRP, creating a sizable regulated investment market.
However, these buying orders did not prevent XRP from falling along with the broader cryptocurrency market.
Can investors recover their losses? (XRP ETF)
The estimated purchase price of $1.72 provides a reference for understanding the extent of this round of decline.
Calculated at a price of approximately $1.28, if the average purchase price remains unchanged, XRP would need to rise by about 34% to return to this model's estimated level.
However, this price should not be regarded as a confirmed technical resistance level, nor should it be considered as a universally applicable break-even price.
ETF The subscription funds also have to compete with the exchange's sell orders, derivatives clearing, and the broader market sentiment.
Recent activities of XRP on the exchanges indicate that even though institutional funds hold large positions, significant token transfers can still occur simultaneously, although these transfers do not necessarily mean that a sale has been completed.
Marcus Hale
Marcus Hale is an author in the fields of cryptography and financial markets, covering topics such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, digital assets, regulation, ETF, and institutional adoption. His work focuses on developments that may drive market changes, investor trends, and the broader forces shaping the crypto economy.
