Rapidan Energy Group, the CEO and geopolitical and energy analyst, Bob McNally stated that it is very likely that the United States will resume military actions against Iran in the coming days, a move that could cause oil prices to rise significantly.

McNally stated in an interview with CNBC regarding Squawk Box Asia that as the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections fades, he believes the probability of a "resumption of military conflict" is 80%.

According to McNally, he expects futures prices for Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (WTI) to rise above $100 per barrel. Currently, these two benchmarks are trading around $100 and $91 respectively.

Before the mid-term elections, oil prices soared above $100 for a while, due to investors weighing the uncertainties brought about by the conflict in Iran, as well as the risks of further military action by the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump previously stated that he would not launch new attacks on Iran before the elections, however, The Wall Street Journal revealed that, according to American officials, Washington has already carried out limited strikes.

McNally said, "President Donald Trump, out of considerations for legacy, is determined to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons at any cost and to force them to abandon their nuclear capabilities."

"On the other hand, the Iranian regime is not willing to do so. As long as this core disagreement within this transaction space persists, the motivation for escalation will continue," he added.

The views of McNally have also been echoed by other analysts, including Lombard Odier, the chief economist, Samy Chaar, and Luca Bindelli, the head of investment strategy.

In a report dated November 4th, they stated that during the “lame-duck” period before the new Congress is sworn in, Trump might have an opportunity to resume strikes against Iran. However, any renewed actions could be limited in duration and effectiveness due to the pressure on the United States’ ammunition stockpiles.

Some analysts also believe that the results of the mid-term elections will leave more room for diplomacy.

Julius Baer, the head of economic research and next-generation research, and cker stated that the market increasingly believes that after the mid-term elections, the situation may see a "way out" in diplomacy, rather than another escalation.

Reuters cited a senior Iranian official on Friday as saying that Iran is said to have submitted a proposal regarding nuclear issues to the United States through Qatar, thus increasing the likelihood of such a move.

However, the proposal will only be discussed after Washington meets what Tehran calls the "seven requirements," which include ceasing U.S. "aggressive actions," lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports, and ending what it considers to be an economic war, as well as releasing Iranian assets.

In exchange, Iran will allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz freely.

The official also told Reuters that Washington is reviewing the proposal, but refused to provide more details.

Political fallout continues to expand

In addition, the Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also launched an attack on the US Vice President JD Vance. Previously, Vance attributed the war with Iran to the Republican Party's defeat in the mid-term elections.

In a post on X, Ghalibaf described Vance's reaction as having the "aura of a gambler who can't accept loss," and claimed that Vance "can't leave the poker table." He also accused the Trump administration of preparing for the next phase of conflict.

Ghalibaf wrote: 'Stop talking about TED's speech. Why don't you say these things to your boss?' This is obviously referring to Trump.

Vance posted on November 4th, saying, 'The reason we lost is war. The president said so himself last night.' He also added that a pollster he consulted found that ending the war was the issue most frequently mentioned by former Trump voters who had switched to the Democratic Party. Cost of living and inflation are also issues that concern them.

Vance sometimes also advocates for diplomatic contact with Tehran. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that he reached out to a hard-line Iranian figure in an attempt to restart peace negotiations.

This war has also pushed up global energy costs and sparked broader concerns about inflation and living expenses among the public.