With the midterm elections over and the United States entering a "lame-duck" session, Congress has seized the opportunity to begin to restore fiscal rationality and sustainability at the federal level.
At the end of August this year, the total federal debt of the United States exceeded $40 trillion, a milestone that naturally attracted widespread attention. However, the author believes that when it comes to fiscal issues, the nominal dollar figure is not the correct indicator to focus on. These $40 trillion are merely the tip of the "financial iceberg" that could bring down the United States.
According to the latest reports from social security and medical insurance trustees, as well as the financial results for the fiscal year 2026, the author estimates that as of September 30, 2026, the total federal debt and unfunded social insurance obligations in the United States amounted to at least $147 trillion. This represents an increase of about $11 trillion from a year ago and is also higher than the approximately $20 trillion level in the year 2000. The author cites annual deficits, the expansion of unfunded obligations for social security and medical insurance, and the increase in unfunded liabilities for federal civilian and military pensions as well as healthcare for retirees as the main reasons for this growth.
The author states that in order to more accurately convey the financial situation of the United States in the past, present, and future, fiscal figures need to be understood in context. The simplest way to do this is to link all the data with the economic scale ( GDP ). In other words, it's about determining what proportion of the “economic pie” each factor occupies.
For example, the total federal debt of $40 trillion is approximately 124% of GDP, which is higher than the 56% in the year 2000; the total federal liabilities of $147 trillion are about 452% of GDP, which is higher than the 199% in 2000. Looking ahead, the latest projections from the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate that the proportion of federal debt to GDP will rise from 124% to 190% over the next 30 years. The author states that this situation must not happen.
The author believes that by observing the interest burden associated with the current level of U.S. debt, one can clearly understand the problems caused by excessive government debt. In fiscal year 2025, 36.5% of the personal income taxes collected were used solely to pay for the interest on national debt. In other words, more than a third of the taxes paid by Americans was used to repay the interest on debts incurred for government spending in the past.
The author further points out that if that's not bad enough, according to CBO, by 2036, it is estimated that 50.6% of personal income tax revenue will be used solely to repay government debt interest. This means that more than half of the taxes paid by Americans will not be used to provide government goods, services, or other payments.
The author warns that if the U.S. government does not change its course, this unsustainable fiscal mess will have adverse consequences for the economy, national security, foreign relations, and domestic stability. The author states that changes are necessary, but the question is how to make them.
The author believes that during the lame-duck session—i.e., the period when the current Congress meets after the election and before the new Congress takes office in January—fiscal responsibility should be a priority. Specifically, the current Congress should pass the bipartisan Fiscal Committee Bills ( Fiscal Commission Act, H.R.3289) before recessing.
The author states that this move will help to lay the groundwork at the public level and also “set the table” for Congress to make difficult choices regarding spending, revenue, and other issues in the future. The author also mentions that passing this bill will become an important political legacy for Speaker of the House Johnson, Committee Chairman Arlington, Chief Republican Co-sponsor Whizenga, and others. However, this “Financial Committee Bill” is still in a state of uncertainty at present.
The author states that there are two possible ways to break the deadlock regarding this bill. First, if necessary, it could be incorporated into a new continuing resolution. Second, if applicable, it could be included in the bill to raise the debt ceiling. The author concludes by writing: Who says that a lame-duck session cannot accomplish important matters?
