A trader placed a bet with leverage of $45.3 million, supporting the bullish argument that the price of Ethereum would bottom out around $2,000. The "bottoming out" theory, represented by Tom Lee, was supported by a notable liquidation window: within 48 hours, nearly $300 million in long positions were liquidated, but the decline represented by ETH was only slightly over 1%. Meanwhile, weakening demand for staking and a continuous net outflow of ETF pointed in the opposite direction.

Large-scale Ethereum liquidation, yet prices only see a slight correction

CoinGlass data shows that within 48 hours, nearly $300 million in long positions were liquidated, while the price correction was only slightly over 1%. This limited decline indicates that selling pressure was relatively under control during that period, but it does not prove that a bottom has been formed.

Compared to October, the contrast is quite evident. At that time, when Ethereum fell below the $2,500 support level, nearly $500 million in positions were liquidated, and ETH subsequently fell by 7%.

Another set of snapshots from November 6th, as shown by CoinGlass, indicates that long leveraged positions are still highly exposed: Ethereum experienced over $210 million in liquidations within 24 hours, of which $179 million came from long positions.

CryptoQuant data shows that as of November 6th, the value of outstanding contracts for Ethereum derivatives has dropped to approximately $11.4 billion, which is lower than the nearly $16 billion in late September. This reflects a reduction in the number of outstanding contracts, but it does not alone indicate whether the market is bullish or bearish.

45.3 million USD in long bets on a potential rebound

This trader opened a long position covering 20,277 ETH tokens with a leverage of 25 times, betting that the price would rise. According to the snapshot mentioned in the text, that position recorded a profit of $252,000 at that time.

This trader claims to have a win rate of 100%. The previous 10 transactions resulted in a realized profit of $6.32 million, and all 10 were profitable trades.

This position, combined with the limited decline of ETH within the 48-hour settlement window, indicates that there is a bullish sentiment in the market before a potential rebound. This provides directional support for Lee's judgment regarding the bottom of Ethereum prices, but it does not prove that the broader market has turned around.

Pledge and ETF Capital Flow Inspection: Ethereum Bottom Theory

The demand indicators still pose a challenge to the view held by Lee that Ethereum is forming a bottom around $2,000. Interest in staking has weakened, and the outflow of funds from ETF indicates that institutional investment funds are still under pressure.

ValidatorQueue shows that there are 1,036,882 ETH, valued at over $2.3 billion, waiting to enter the Ethereum validator queue. In contrast, six months ago, this number was 3,737,802 ETH, indicating that there are fewer investors seeking to lock up assets to earn staking rewards.

Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of $270 million in less than a week after November began, following five consecutive weeks of outflows. The total net outflow in October was $1.6 billion; if the outflows continue, the prospects for a rebound will face greater pressure.

Daily data shows that demand is not balanced. SoSoValue data indicates that on November 4th, there was a net inflow of 53 million US dollars, followed by a net outflow of nearly 100 million US dollars on November 5th. Among this, BlackRock's ETHA accounted for 75.2 million US dollars of this outflow.

There is a significant bullish clearing zone below $2,200. In the context of continued weak sentiment, if the price falls below this area, ETH could potentially fall below $2,000 before a potential reversal—this is precisely the bearish scenario that poses a challenge to the "bottom has been reached" judgment.

Technical indicators also show that the buying momentum is weak. The chart from November 5th by TradingView indicates that the Fibonacci support level on the daily chart is near $2,240, while the weekly chart Supertrend support level is around $2,008. As of November 6th, Ethereum's Relative Strength Index (RSI) RSI was at 38.65, which is below the neutral level of 50 but still above the usual oversold level of 30.

This article was generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence and has been reviewed by an editorial team.