SOL Can it break through the $90 mark?CoinMetaAs of press time, SOL is trading at $83.27, with a 24-hour low of $82.86. RSI has a reading of only $23.85, indicating an extremely oversold condition. The price has fallen by nearly $7 from above $90. Our analysis suggests that the market is not in a "building momentum for a breakout" phase, but rather in a "shrinking volume and bleeding" phase. Whether $90 can be broken through depends on whether three prerequisite conditions resonate, rather than just the oversold indicators themselves.

Table: SOL Latest Currency Data Overview

Explanation: The above contentCoinMetaCompiled and summarized based on public market information. In case of any fluctuations, please refer to the actual situation.

SOL Currency Latest Price Analysis

Candlestick Structure Analysis

We throughCoinMetaSOL currency's latest daily trend analysis indicates that RSI is in a state of extreme oversold, but trading volume sends the opposite signal.

The recent trajectory of SOL has seen a continuous decline from a high of $124.95. On the 10th and 20th, as well as the 200-day moving average, it was all breached. The current price of $83.27 has fallen below several previous psychological support levels such as $90 and $95.

SOL Daily Analysis

In terms of technical indicators:

RSI (14) is only at 23.85, which is in an extremely oversold range;

The MACD lines are both below the zero axis, and the bar chart shows negative values; there is no sign of a golden cross.

Let's take a look at the short-term data, which further confirms this pattern: in the 1-hour time frame, EMA20 is at $84.2, while RSI is only at $32. In the 4-hour time frame, EMA20 is at $86.5, and RSI is at $31, with trading volume being only 0.26 times the average volume. We believe that a trading volume of 0.26 times the average indicates that there is almost no active buying, and the oversold condition can persist for a long time without leading to a rebound.

Margin call structure analysis

According to the latest margin call data from SOL, we can see:

In the past 24 hours, the total amount of margin calls for SOL across the network was 2.4496 million US dollars, of which long positions had margin calls amounting to 1.7371 million US dollars, while short positions only had margin calls of 712,500 US dollars. The ratio of long to short margin calls reached approximately 2.44:1.

The largest single margin call occurred on Binance, with an amount of $1.2706 million, and it was a long position.

Among them, the long-to-short account ratio is 2.21, which means that the number of accounts holding long positions far exceeds that of short positions. However, it is precisely these long holders who are liquidated during the price decline. Additionally, earlier data from CoinVictor also shows that long positions account for about 80% of all accounts, yet only about 53% of the active trades are by long holders.

SOL Latest Margin Call Data

We believe that this type of divergence, where "accounts are bullish but active trades tend to be bearish," is essentially a passive deleveraging process following overcrowding among long positions, rather than a signal of new funds entering the market to take a bullish stance. Before the structure of margin calls shifts from being dominated by longs to bears, it will be very difficult for the price to break through $90.

What are the conditions for a breakthrough of $90 with SOL?

We believe that there is a possibility for the SOL to break through at $90, but it requires a resonance of a set of conditions rather than the correction of a single indicator. We will introduce them one by one below.

Condition one: The bleeding from ETF must be stopped; this is the absolute veto item.

SoSoValue data shows that as of press time, SOL spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $26.2521 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of negative flows, with a cumulative net outflow of approximately $170 million over the five weeks. Compared to the total net asset value of about $1.31 billion at the beginning of November, the weekly outflow rate is around 2%, but the continuous negative flows over five weeks constitute a directional signal.

SOL Spot ETFOutflow performance

In addition, there was a net outflow of $143.71 million throughout October, which represents the worst monthly performance in the approximately one-year history of Solana ETF. The continuous redemptions by holders of ETF indicate a lack of spot buyers at prices above $90 for SOL to absorb the supply.

SOL has broken through the minimum threshold of $90, while ETF has seen at least two consecutive weeks of net inflows on a weekly basis, yet this time there hasn't been a single week of net inflows for two consecutive weeks.

Condition two: Macroeconomic risks must be adjusted back from a fearful level.

CME FedWatch data shows that as of November 11, the market's pricing probability for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.5%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0%. Bitcoin is trading at around $73,637, and the CoinMeta Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 26, still in the “fear” range.

We believe that the $90 test of SOL occurred during a period of macroeconomic contraction:

BTC is struggling around $73,000, and there are no signs of funds spreading from BTC to altcoins. Although the long position ratio in accounts is as high as 78%-80%, the proportion of active long trades at Gate is only 45.3%, indicating that the actual driving force behind price movements is selling, not buying.

Condition three: Technically, there needs to be a significant increase in volume to recover to $87–$90.

Based on the analysis above, the current price is $83.27. The first substantial resistance level above is not the round figure of $90, but rather the 1-hour resistance at $87.03 and the 4-hour resistance at $90.67. The higher range of $92-$94 has been rejected twice in the earlier period.

SOL Currency Latest Price

Our analysis reveals that the technical confirmation signal for a breakthrough above $90 is a daily close above $92.94, accompanied by a rebound in trading volume above the average level. Given the current volume of 0.26 times the average, even if the price spikes back to $90 due to short covering, it is likely to be a rebound caused by low-quality liquidity rather than the starting point of a trend-breaking movement.

SOL Price Outlook: $83—$85 is the observation point

Since $90 for SOL is a conditional target, what is the most likely price range for it next?

From a structural inference perspective, a short-term cost-intensive zone is forming around $83:

A 24-hour low of $82.86 and a 4-hour support level of $81.34 form a buffer below, while $87.03 above represents the level that bulls need to first prove their position at. If the price can stabilize within the $81-$83 range with reduced trading volume, and there is a rebound attempt accompanied by increased trading volume, then $90 could once again come into focus; however, the quality of this rebound depends on whether ETF stops bleeding simultaneously, whether BTC breaks free from the fear of $73,000, rather than just the technical recovery of SOL itself.

On the blockchain level, Solana DeFi TVL has a value of approximately $6.65 billion, with 3.11 million active addresses in 24 hours. The user base has not collapsed, but the adoption rate on the chain is a slow variable that determines the long-term lower limit of SOL.

Conclusion

Back to the initial question: Can SOL break through the $90 level? From a conditional reasoning perspective, the minimum threshold for a breakthrough is for the daily chart to close above $92.94 with increased trading volume, and at the same time, the weekly trend of ETF needs to turn from negative to positive; a stronger confirmation would require the price to stay above the $97–$102 range, which is the EMA consolidation area, and for Bitcoin to emerge from the fear zone around $73,000.

Our view is that until the stability between $83 and $85 is confirmed by trading volume, the baseline scenario for the SOL price outlook remains a weak consolidation, rather than a trend reversal.

SOL Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What is the SOL coin?

SOL is the native token of the Solana public chain, used to pay transaction fees, stake to maintain network security, and participate in ecosystem governance.

Q2: Is SOL worth holding for the long term?

It's worth it, but it depends on your holding strategy. Looking at the long-term fundamentals, Solana has one of the highest transaction volumes and application revenues among public chains. The deflation proposal has increased the annual deflation rate from 15% to 30%, and it is expected that the issuance of SOL will be reduced by about 18.9 million in the next six years, which will lower the dilution for holders.

Q3: How about the collateral earnings of SOL?

The current nominal yield on staking for SOL is around 5.2% to 5.25%, but the trend is downward. Verifiers have passed a proposal to accelerate deflation, and as a result, staking rewards will decrease accordingly; if about 68% of SOL maintain their staked status, the yield may drop to around 4.34% after one year, to around 3% after two years, and to around 2.25% after three years.

The above content is an analysis of " SOL Currency's Latest Price Outlook: Can It Break Through the $90 Barrier?" For the latest information, please follow CoinMeta.

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