Kaitou Macro: The selling of US Treasuries may be a bit excessive
2026-09-28 21:43:29
According to CoinMeta, CaiTou Macro believes that the selling of U.S. Treasuries is mainly due to changes in market expectations for interest rates recently. Currently, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has approached its peak from June 2007. Economist James Reilly pointed out that this trend reflects more of a rise in oil prices and a strong U.S. economy, rather than being driven by debt issuance related to artificial intelligence or fiscal concerns. Reilly predicts that as the Federal Reserve's tightening measures fall short of investors' current expectations, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries will "significantly drop to 4.25%" by the end of 2027. He believes that although AI related debt issuance will continue to put upward pressure on yields, its impact will not be as significant as media reports suggest and will be offset by changes in monetary policy expectations. As for fiscal concerns, he added that there have been no substantial fiscal developments recently that would trigger a sharp rise in yields.
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Source:Jin10 Data
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