Bitcoin rebounded on Monday, reaching a high of $79,325 and approaching the $80,000 mark. The market links this rebound to Trump's statements regarding Iran, but Iranian official media has not confirmed these claims, and the geopolitical situation remains unclear.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran hopes to reach an agreement with Washington, and the United States is also open to such contact. This statement led to a recovery in risk assets. U.S. stocks rebounded after earlier declines during the session, and market sentiment improved accordingly; Bitcoin also saw a rapid rise from its intraday low of $76,388.
Bitcoin has returned to the upper range of its trading band.
From the market overview, Bitcoin opened at $76,842 on that day, first fell then rose, subsequently surpassed $78,000, and continued to climb higher. At the time of publication, the price was around $79,143, with a daily increase of about 3%.
However, this round of rebound is still temporarily within the early-stage fluctuation range. Recently, Bitcoin has attempted several times to hold above $81,000, but has not been able to sustain that level. The current trend is just a return to the upper half of the range, and no clear breakthrough has yet been formed.
- Intraday low: $76,388
- Intraday high: $79,325
- Current price range: $79,143
Clearing pressure is intense around $80,000.
Derivative data indicates that around $80,000 remains a key short-term level. The weekly clearing heat map by CoinGlass shows that there are a significant number of leveraged positions concentrated in the range of $79,900 to $80,000. If buying pressure continues to increase, this area may be the first to come under test.
Between $80,200 and $80,700, there are several smaller consolidation zones. If the price successfully breaks through this range, the market will then focus on the resistance above $81,000, as well as the higher region of $82,000.
In terms of support below, around $78,521 is the current first reference level. If this level is lost, prices could revisit the $77,500 to $78,000 range. Greater liquidity at lower levels is concentrated around $76,000, near the lower edge of the recent trading range.
Oil prices and the Federal Reserve remain external variables
Although Trump's statements briefly boosted market sentiment, the situation in the Middle East has not truly eased. Reports mention that the risks associated with shipping and energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continue, and international oil prices remain high. Brent crude oil once rose, but then gave back some of its gains, still staying around $106 per barrel, while US crude oil also remains above $100 per barrel.
High oil prices mean that inflationary pressures in the United States may continue to exist, which also makes this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting more closely watched. The market has already factored in a higher probability of interest rate hikes, and investors are more concerned about the latest economic forecasts and policy paths. If interest rate expectations continue to rise and U.S. Treasury yields increase, it may put pressure on non-interest-bearing assets such as Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the cash flow of US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to provide support. Data shows that as of the week ending September 4th, there was a net inflow of $986.7 million for such products, compared to $924.5 million in the previous week, marking three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling approximately $3.8 billion.
Overall, Bitcoin has returned to the level of $80,000 in the short term, but whether it can break through this level further still depends on whether risk sentiment continues, as well as whether there are any new changes in oil prices, the Fed's stance, and the situation in the Middle East.
