HYPE is testing an important area after losing a support level that had lasted for about ten days. Trader Steve pointed out that this breakdown indicates a bearish trend, and noted that this decline was accompanied by trading volume three to four times larger than that of the previous K-lines.
The latest charts show that the trading price of HYPE is around $89.2 to $89.4, which has fallen from the local high of nearly $100. This trend has made the range of $88 to $92 the core area of the current market movement.
HYPE Testing the support range of $88 to $92
We examined the charts of HYPE over 12-hour and 4-hour time periods, and the latest decline has brought the price into a region that previously served as resistance.
On the 12-hour chart, HYPE broke through the range of $88 to $92 during the rebound in September, and subsequently approached $100. Now this area is being tested from above. If it falls below $88, the next support level of interest would be around $80 to $82, followed by the $70 to $73 range from September's pullback period.
The 4-hour chart also shows a similar structure. On September 20th, HYPE rose to around $100 before then declining. On the 9th, the moving average of the index was around $90.76, while the price was around $89.38, which means that HYPE had fallen below this short-term moving average. RSI also dropped to 39.34, whereas its moving average was 46.69.
This combination indicates relatively weak short-term momentum, but the larger-level structure remains different.
The larger price trend remains above the key support level.
The daily chart shows that before this pullback, HYPE had already experienced several significant increases. The token was previously traded between $20 and $25 during the macroeconomic bottom phase, and then climbed to around $80 between February and June.
During the correction from June to August, HYPE fell to around $40, then broke through the resistance range of $65 to $80, and rebounded to around $98 to $100 in September.
On the daily chart, on the 9th, EMA, the price was around 91.11 US dollars, which means that the price had fallen below this level when it was near 89.23 US dollars. The next dynamic support level indicated by the upward trend line is estimated to be between 80 and 85 US dollars, with 80 US dollars also marking the upper edge of the previous resistance area.
The bearish perspective of Trader Steve X focuses more on the market structure, rather than just the decline itself. The analysis indicates that lower highs and lower lows have appeared on a longer time frame, with an increase in trading volume during the declines. The trader also noted that within the same six trading days, Bitcoin fell while the US tech index rose, describing this trend as a relative weakness in the crypto market.
HYPE More data indicates that the market value has fallen below...
The market capitalization chart of Glassnode provides another quantifiable reference. When the price approached $97, the market capitalization of HYPE reached approximately $21.6 billion, and then as the price fell below $92, the market capitalization dropped to around $20.4 billion.
The latest Glassnode data shows that both the price and market value are close to the lower edge of the range indicated on the chart. The current price area that requires the most attention is around $92, followed by the larger range of $88 to $92 on the trading chart.
For this bearish structure to continue to hold, Trader Steve X believes that the price needs to close above the previous swing high on a higher time frame, which would constitute a failure point. If, on the other hand, HYPE breaks below $88 with higher trading volume, then the $80 to $82 range will become the next reference zone.
For now, HYPE is caught between a short-term bearish structure and a larger upward trend, with the latter still above its main support level of $80.
