While Kyle Boss and his colleagues were drinking tea from beer mugs, they listed the changes that were taking place in their lives.
Boss has two daughters, and the third child is due to be born in January next year. In the past, the money that would buy five items at the grocery store was almost enough to fill a whole shopping cart. However, on Wednesday, Boss, along with nearly 1,400 other people, was laid off from the former Navistar truck factory in southwestern Ohio.
This round of layoffs occurred three days before President Donald Trump was scheduled to hold a rally at a nearby high school on Saturday, and its scale nearly wiped out a year's worth of employment growth in the Greater Dayton area of Ohio. This is also one of the reasons why the 30-year-old boss plans to go door-to-door campaigning for the Democratic Party in the last few weeks before the November elections.
When asked how many times he had voted for Trump, Boss raised three fingers with tattoos. But he said that he no longer supported the president.
"There must be political changes in this country," said Boss, who identifies himself as a centrist and is also a member of the United Auto Workers. "It feels like things are just getting worse and worse and worse."
Trump will be campaigning in this region on Saturday.
This year's election is a test for the working-class alliance that once sent Trump to the White House and helped the Republican Party gain majority seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The outcome will be determined in places like Dayton, which was once known for having more patents per capita than any other city in the United States, with numerous factories located there. The Wright brothers' airplanes, cash registers, folding ladders, and electric vehicle starters were all invented in this city with a population of 137,000.
Trump's straightforward language and his identity as a "celebrity businessman" initially helped him win support in the Dayton area, where local voters felt that traditional politics had disappointed them. The Republican Party achieved victories in larger metropolitan areas, but this year, the party has appeared vulnerable among some voters who are dissatisfied with inflation, the Iran war, and a president who seems to lack empathy for their difficulties.
An election in Ohio may help determine control of the Senate. Republican Senator Jon Hesterd is facing a challenge from former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown is attempting to capitalize on this sense of disappointment to make a comeback after losing his seat two years ago.
Trump's visit to the Dayton area this time is part of what he described as a 32-day rally marathon, with the aim of convincing the public that the economic situation is better than they imagine.
Factories and workshops are being built across the country – manufacturing is making a comeback, Trump said on Thursday at a truck factory in Texas. “The only thing we don’t do well is public relations.”
More and more Americans are blaming Trump for the high cost of living, with only 17% agreeing with his approach to this issue. Trump often dismisses the public's concerns about affordability, but he has promised to distribute checks worth $5,000 to citizens if the Republicans win control of the House of Representatives and the Senate next month – Boss says he finds this very offensive.
“This feels like bribery, like a slap in the face, and also like a way of saying that we are all ignorant,” said the boss.
After the outflow of factory jobs, the Republican Party gained more support.
Federal data shows that since 1990, about half of the 90,000 factory jobs in the Dayton area have disappeared. The North American Free Trade Agreement led to many jobs being transferred to Mexico, as the cost of manufacturing auto parts is lower there. This trend has accelerated further since China joined the World Trade Organization.
As stable wages disappeared, drug addiction and crime increased. After the financial crisis in 2008, the situation seemed to reach its lowest point, which prompted Phil Plummer, who was then the sheriff of Montgomery County, to enter politics.
“In my prison, 40% are drug addicts, 50% are mental health patients, and only 10% are actual criminals,” said Plummer, who has served as a Republican state representative since 2019. “We have turned things completely upside down—this is what motivated me to enter the state legislature.”
Plummer, who is the chairman of the Republican Party in Montgomery County, is currently running for a seat as a senator in Ohio. He emphasizes that Trump has always been a key figure in maintaining the alliance between the Republican business community and working-class families.
In recent years, with the expansion of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, the local economy has improved. The base now employs directly 38,000 people. The innovation at the base has attracted new aerospace companies to the area, including Joby Aviation, Sierra Nevada Corporation, and Electra.
The White House mentioned an $850 million investment from aircraft manufacturer Electra, as well as announcements released by companies such as Honda and Stellantis in Ohio, stating that this is evidence of Trump's policies creating jobs.
The reason Dayton has rebounded is that over the past 20 years, both the Republican and Democratic parties have recognized the value that Wright-Patterson Base brings, said Jeff Hoglan, CEO of the Dayton Development Alliance.
Hogland said, "In economic development, this takes time; you must give it some time to ferment. Once it takes shape, you will get something special."
Even as Dayton is recovering, local politicians say this election is still about inflation.
New attic-style residences have been added to downtown Dayton, and the historic building "Dayton Arcade," which features glass domes and mosaic tiles, has also been renovated to become shops, art galleries, and dining venues.
On Monday, in this gallery, during a fundraising event for Rose Lonsbury, the sounds of acoustic guitar and flute echoed throughout the hall. Lonsbury used to be a teacher, and this is her second time running for state representative as a Democrat.
Those present generally held an optimistic view that the Democrats might win a seat in the Federal Senate, the governorship, as well as a sufficient number of seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, thereby ending the Republican Party's supermajority.
“There is a gap between what people want and what they think they can get,” says Lonsbury. “People don’t want to live a life of barely scraping by. They aspire to the dream life of the middle class, which they feel is no longer as within reach as it used to be.”
Andrea White, the Republican opponent of Lunsbury and a state representative, was in the state capital of Columbus last week. She helped to push through a measure to temporarily suspend the collection of a state gasoline tax of 38.5 cents per gallon in order to alleviate the burden on citizens when filling up their cars.
White stated that Republican-led state governments helped to mitigate the impact of inflation by flattening state income taxes and curbing increases in property taxes.
White said, "The concept is to give the money back to the taxpayers, so that they can keep more of their own money."
Overtime tax exemptions have not helped these factory workers.
The White House stated that Trump's tax cuts and trade agreements have helped the state of Ohio. However, the experience of the former Navistar factory indicates that those policies, which were supposed to benefit the working class, are not sufficient.
His extensive tariffs failed to boost demand, and the former owner of the factory, International Motors, chose to divest from this facility. Trump's most important legislative achievement – "a grand and beautiful bill" ( One Big Beautiful Bill ) – also had a limited impact on people's take-home income, although it temporarily eliminated taxes on tips and overtime earnings.
"For economic reasons, we don't get much overtime," said Mariana Donnelly, who used to drive forklifts in a factory. "There's simply not much opportunity for overtime at all; it's very limited."
Meanwhile, the cost of living continues to rise. Donnelly says she buys discounted beef, pork, and chicken to store in her fridge. She canceled her subscriptions to The Columbus Chronicle and The Washington Post, as well as some streaming services.
Laid-off workers like Donnelly indicate that they expect to be rehired within 6 to 12 months, as Canadian armored vehicle manufacturer Roshel is acquiring this factory. Roshel stated in a declaration that the company "is working with all stakeholders not only to protect the current workforce but also to more than double its size over the next few years through a phased process."
Laid-off workers are seeking hope.
On the Monday just before the layoffs, Morgan Hughes and JoJo Burkhardt were going door to door in Kaitlin, a suburb of Dayton. Kaitlin is named after the inventor of the electric vehicle starter. They were trying to persuade union members and retirees to vote for the Democratic Party.
At 35, Hughes said that her job at Navistar allowed her to buy a house at the age of 21 and also to work alongside her father.
After her working hours were cut for the first time, Hughes began taking on a part-time job delivering DoorDash food and also obtained a real estate license. She has a cross tattooed on her wrist along with the words “Be Still And Know”, which are from Psalm 46:10, symbolizing that faith in God can overcome fear.
Hughes said that union members and retirees want to be heard because they feel that they have always been ignored by politicians. Burkhardt said that inflation and economic issues make it easier to appeal to swing voters.
“It’s not difficult to persuade them at all,” she said, “Even if they don’t want to continue supporting the Democratic Party in the long run, at least for this election they are willing to give these candidates a chance, and this could be a turning point for us.”
After having a conversation with voters one morning, the two sat down at a Chinese restaurant and ordered guotie (a type of dumpling), and the stress of that week suddenly descended upon them.
Burkhardt broke open a piece of lucky cookie, and tears began to well up in her eyes. The layoffs meant that she, her boyfriend, and her mother would all lose their jobs—and the words on that small note seemed almost like some kind of prophecy. She said she needed the hope that message conveyed by it.
The fortune she drew read: "You will find the inner strength to overcome challenges."
