Minneapolis – The “Metro Surge Operation” has been over for several months, but the crisis faced by the Colonial Market chain of grocery stores under Daniel Hernandez (Daniel Hernandez) has not ended.

After Hernandez's parking lot became a well-known gathering place for agents from the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the daily morning queues that used to be there disappeared. He had hoped that business would pick up again after the raid was over, but that did not happen.

“We’re barely—really, just barely—still alive,” Hernandez said in an interview with CNBC at one of their stores. Spanish music was playing inside the store, and colorful pinatas hung from the ceiling. “The damage has already been done.”

This summer, Hernandez closed the store located at Lake Street ( Lake Street ) under Colonial Market. Lake Street is the heart of Minneapolis' Hispanic business community. When he opened the store two years ago, he used his savings and also took out a loan by mortgaging his house. He said that sales at his stores have decreased by about 60%.

The financial turmoil faced by Hernandez and others in Minneapolis is also playing out to varying degrees in communities across the country. As President Trump instructed federal immigration officials during his second term to carry out large-scale deportations in major American cities, an increasing number of studies have shown that this was followed by a period of economic cooling that lasted for several months.

Analysis by Zach Hernandez, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania ( Zeke Hernandez ), shows that in cities where sudden immigration raids occurred in 2025, weekly foot traffic decreased by nearly 3%, and consumer spending fell by more than 6%. (The surnames mentioned in this article do not indicate any familial relationships between individuals with the surname Hernandez.)

He found that overall, these regions experienced about 8 billion fewer visits that year, resulting in a loss of several billion dollars in consumer spending.

"You're creating an environment similar to a recession within a community that is already being targeted," said Zek Hernandez. "It's like a localized recession."

The "disaster" of Minnesota

"The Metro Surge operation" was packaged by the Department of Homeland Security as the largest immigration enforcement operation in history, and it took place in Minneapolis from early December to mid-February. Even months after the official announcement of its end, local businesses were still working hard to restore stability, and community leaders were calculating its economic impact.

Lake Street Council indicates that businesses owned by immigrants in that commercial district suffered a total loss of 46 million US dollars in December and January. In the months following the end of the initiative, council members visited each small business owner one by one to assist them in filling out applications for emergency relief funds, many of whom did not speak English as their native language and some could barely speak any English at all.

According to the data specifically analyzed for CNBC based on Advan Research, within the postal code area where Lake Street Corridor is located, the footfall performance of bars and restaurants continued to be weaker compared to nearby communities for several months after the official end of the event. The gap peaked in March, approaching 10 percentage points.

The Minneapolis City Council estimates that from December to April, this operation resulted in a loss of nearly $700 million in economic activity for the "City on the Lake." Mayor Jacob Frey ( Jacob Frey ) told CNBC that this figure may still be a conservative estimate, as the city is still dealing with the "tail effects" brought about by this operation.

The city council allocated approximately $7 million to support local businesses and provided over $3 million in rental assistance. Frey acknowledged that these funds are not sufficient to address the situation in the community, which many compare to natural disasters.

"Traditionally, disaster relief is not a matter of party affiliation," said Democrat Frey to CNBC. "Traditionally, disasters are not caused by the government itself."

An analysis released by the Brookings Institution last month showed that employment declined in American cities that experienced sudden immigration enforcement raids. The report found that six months after each raid, the employment gap in the most affected cities was 0.4%.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that over the past year, the decline in labor force participation rates in Minnesota has been faster than the national average. In 2026, the state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate exceeded the national average for the first time in about 19 years.

“Actions like Metro Surge are sometimes perceived as only affecting unlicensed workers,” said Taylor Hepper ( Tyler Schipper ), an economist at St. Thomas University, the largest private university in Minnesota. “That’s far from the case.”

Data from the Minnesota Tenant Rights Organization Home Line shows that the number of eviction notices in Minneapolis in January and February decreased year-over-year. Although this action led some companies to cut working hours, Eric Hauger (Eric Hauge), co-executive director of Home Line, stated that a combination of government housing funds and mutual aid programs may have helped to mitigate the personal financial stress on residents.

As these sources of funding dried up, Hauger said that the relative number of eviction notices began to surge. In the year up to August, the total number of notices increased by about 7% compared to the same period in 2025.

To supplement government aid during the period of action, the Minneapolis Foundation raised millions of dollars from local businesses. However, the CEO of this non-profit organization, R.T Rieback ( R.T Rybak ), stated that large companies were much slower to speak out in this matter after the death of George Floyd ( George Floyd ); he believes that this change stems from concerns about retaliation against the Trump administration.

“I understand the tremendous political pressure these companies are under,” said Rickert, the former Democratic mayor of Minneapolis. “But I think people here are well aware that this is not the best time for our usually very effective corporate philanthropy departments.”

Latinos in the U.S. Economy

During his first term and in the 2024 campaign, Trump made large-scale deportations a central issue. Democrats, on the other hand, presented next month's midterms as an opportunity for voters to express their dissatisfaction with his signature policies.

White House Spokesperson Lauren Bis ( Lauren Bis ) stated in a statement to CNBC that during President Biden's tenure, "a surge in illegal immigration has threatened the country's long-term fiscal health, fueled record-high inflation, and depressed the wages of American workers."

A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security, which is responsible for regulating ICE, stated that "illegal immigration is a shock to the supply of low-skilled labor" and may drive up rental costs.

Advocates for Hispanic Americans warn that immigration crackdowns could slow down a demographic group that has become a key driver of economic growth across the United States. The Latino Donor Collaborative ( Latino Donor Collaborative ) stated on Wednesday to CNBC that if Latinos in the U.S. formed their own independent country, its gross domestic product would be $5.1 trillion, ranking it fourth in the world.

However, data from Numerator shows that in the past two years, the average consumption growth rate of Hispanic families in the United States has declined by about 2 percentage points. A survey conducted by this market research company in 2025 indicated that Hispanic consumers are 50% more likely to list immigration policies as a top priority.

"We are currently facing challenges," said Sol Trujillo ( Sol Trujillo ), co-founder of the California Latino Donor Collaborative. "These policies could cause significant disruption to our economy."

Of course, it's not just Hispanic consumers and businesses that are under pressure.

The Children's Theatre Company, headquartered in Minneapolis ( Children 's Theatre Co ), was forced to cancel multiple performances due to roadblocks set up by the National Guard, which made it impossible to reach the venue. After the theatre reopened, Executive Director Ryan French ( Ryan French ) stated that the number of attendees was approximately half of what was originally expected.

Low sales of tickets and catering led to a reduction of approximately $500,000 in revenue for this non-profit organization, which ended its fiscal year in deficit. French said that the organization, with a history of 60 years, cut 3 jobs and reduced working hours for other employees.

"Fear never leaves."

At the end of last month, during a workday in Minneapolis, residents referred to this incident as “the surge” in their casual conversations, and they described major life events as happening before or after it. Faded posters on the exterior walls of buildings commemorated Renee Goode (Renee Good) and Alex Pretti (Alex Pretti), both of whom were killed by federal immigration officials during the incident and were American citizens. Many residences and shops in the city had notices hanging up, reminding immigration enforcement officers not to enter private property.

Jason Chavez ( Jason Chavez ), a member of the Minneapolis City Council representing parts of Lake Street, said that many immigrant business owners have exhausted their life savings in this endeavor to keep their shops running. Now, he says, small businesses in the community may not even be able to withstand minor incidents such as water pipe leaks or bad weather.

Recently, these companies have shown some signs of recovery. Lake Street Council organized a World Cup viewing event that attracted a large crowd, as well as the recent " taco tour " food tour, which brought hope for customer return. Advan Research observed that in August, the annual footfall of restaurants in the Lake Street postal code area surpassed that of surrounding areas for the first time, a situation that has not occurred since the launch of Metro Surge.

However, community members are concerned that immigration enforcement may escalate again. Although the number of arrests in Minnesota by ICE has slowed down compared to earlier this year, according to data from Deportation Data Project, the number of arrests nationwide in July rose to the highest level since Trump returned to the White House.

"For those immigrants who remain in Minneapolis and the surrounding areas, that fear has never left," said Miguel Hernandez, the owner of Lake Street Lito's Burritos, "To this day, they still operate with a high level of vigilance."

The restaurant owner said that whenever there are headlines about immigration enforcement in the news, the number of customers drops sharply in the following days. Some employees who hold work permits have also left the United States due to concerns about how federal officials might treat them. He sold his gray Chevrolet Tahoe, because the children started mistaking this car for a ICE vehicle and panicked and ran away.

Over the past few Sundays, one of the Colonial Market stores that Daniel Hernandez is still operating has become a temporary market for immigrant entrepreneurs to sell their products. The owner said that he invited Minneapolis police to patrol during these weekly events because he believes that the presence of local law enforcement officers wearing body cameras can prevent the appearance of ICE agents.

But Daniel Hernandez says that the increase in foot traffic brought about by this temporary market may not be enough for this store to continue to survive.

He said that due to the decline in sales during and after this period of activity, he may be evicted by his landlord later this month. Colonial Market has raised over $3,000 through GoFundMe to help keep the business open.

“When a storm comes, you can feel the wind blowing. But once the storm passes, all that remains is destruction,” he said. “That’s just the way it is here.”