Kalshi and Polymarket among others accurately predicted that Democrats would win both houses of Congress, and they were quite accurate in their forecasts of several key Senate races, which helped to enhance the reputation of these platforms for their "accurate predictions." Now that the mid-term elections have concluded, traders in the prediction market have turned their attention to what will happen next.

As the Democratic majority elected promises to investigate various aspects of the Trump administration, ranging from the Iran war to corruption allegations, traders are betting on who might be the next to leave the Trump cabinet. The trading volume in the related market last time was nearly $190,000; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wells, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are all among the leading candidates. Polymarket

As of Friday morning, Heggerty led with a probability of around 31%, followed by Wells at 24% and Rubio at 8%. However, traders also believe that the probability of no cabinet members leaving their positions before 2027 is about 27%.

Hegseth is ahead in this market because his role in the Iran war has sparked calls for his removal from office. The House of Representatives may vote on the impeachment articles as early as next week, accusing him of launching the war without congressional approval; after the Republican Party's loss in the midterms, Republican Representative Thomas Massie plans to revive this effort.

Wells also became a target of criticism, as the Republican Party sought to identify those responsible for their losses in the midterms. One of the critics is former Trump aide Caroline Sandshayn, who called for Wells to resign in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday. Sandshayn said, "Her campaign skills did not translate into governance capabilities."

At the same time, Rubio is also facing questions about his future in government and whether he may run for president in 2028. Bloomberg reported that he has discussed resigning with White House officials, who would prefer him to stay on. However, he publicly denied these rumors about leaving this week and told The New York Times that continuing in his role until the end of Trump's term "has always been my plan."