The U.S. Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) report will be released today, while Bitcoin is still striving to hold above $74,000. BTC has fallen from around $81,195 at the beginning of November. Since the beginning of this month, there has also been a net outflow of $2.2 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.
Against the backdrop of traders becoming more cautious, the biggest question at present is whether the CPI data will provide a reason for Bitcoin to rebound, or whether it will push it to fall further.
Today's CPI report: What traders expect
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ) will release the data for October CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time today. There is an unusual gap in this report: due to a 43-day government shutdown, BLS did not collect price data for October 2025, so the annual inflation rate will not be announced.
Due to the lack of official year-on-year data, traders will have to refer to an estimated range of 3.6% to 4.0%. According to last month's official data, overall inflation in September rose by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than 3.4% in August; core inflation was 2.6%.
In terms of month-on-month data, the market expects the overall CPI to rise by 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.6% in September. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices is expected to rise by 0.2%, compared to 0.3% in the previous month.
How CPI may affect Bitcoin today
For Bitcoin, market reactions depend less on whether inflation has simply subsided and more on the extent to which data deviates from expectations.
If the reading is higher than 0.3%, it may reinforce market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. The market currently accounts for an 84% probability of a rate hike. This could put greater pressure on Bitcoin.
If core inflation is lower than expected, traders may get some breathing room. Lower inflation will ease the pressure on the Federal Reserve and could also provide a reason for buyers to re-enter the Bitcoin market.
Can the Bitcoin price of $72,000 to $75,000 be maintained?
Cryptography analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes that the range of $72,000 to $75,000 is an important support area for Bitcoin. Several major support levels converge in this range, so it is possible that this area could become the point where BTC stops falling and forms higher highs and lows.
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin is testing the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $74,974. The next support level is around $72,040, which is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. BTC is also currently trading in the bullish support zone and near the 200-day moving average.
Daan indicates that this is precisely the price range he has been waiting for.
If Bitcoin has already entered a new bull market after rising from $58,000 to $87,000, then holding this range could help it form higher highs and lows and continue its recovery. However, if the price falls below the $72,000 to $75,000 range, the bullish outlook may weaken.
